Daily US Index Volatility Forecast 23 May 22 SPY,SPX, QQQ, NDX

23 mai 2022

ES/SPX/SPY 23 May 2022
For today, based on the last 30 days, the current implied volatility is around 1.86% movement.
So with a more than 71% chance we can estimate that the current daily channel made with 3910open candle value, is going to be:
TOP 3910 + 73 -> aprox 3983
BOT 3910 - 73 -> aprox 3837

At the same time, if we want to increase our probability, we can go for a IV of 2.8%
With this we can achieve over the last 5000+ daily candles, a 88% probability.
So in this case , our daily channel is going to be compressed within
TOP 3910 + 110 -> aprox 4020
BOT 3910 - 110 -> aprox 3800

For SPY, you can take the the IV of either 1.86% or 2.8% and apply that calculation with the open candle once markets starts



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NQ/NDX/QQQ 23 May 2022
For today, based on the last 30 days, the current implied volatility is around 2.48% movement.
So with a more than 71% chance we can estimate that the current daily channel made with 11866 open candle value, is going to be:
TOP 11866 + 295 -> aprox 12160
BOT 11866 - 295 -> aprox 11570

At the same time, if we want to increase our probability, we can go for a IV of 3.95%
With this we can achieve over the last 5000+ daily candles, a 88% probability.
So in this case , our daily channel is going to be compressed within
TOP 11866 + 470 -> aprox 12334
BOT 11866 - 470 -> aprox 11400

For QQQ you can take either the IV 2.48% or 3.95% and apply that to the opening price of the candle once markets starts



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