ES Range Expectation for PPI and the Friday Session

12 juil. 2024

Today we're looking at ES e-mini futures for an expectation of the amount of range we could do. We take a look at both the upside and downside to get a view on where the boundaries of normality would be to aid us in framing intraday trades.

Yesterday's CPI Inflation data provided us with the 2nd large range day in a row (big range days tend to cluster) and today we're about to get the PPI data that usually follows the day after but is a bit more forward looking on inflation expectations. In short it could be another catalyst for another large range day.

12 juil. 2024

Note

A quick update on how this has played out (so far... we're about 1 hour off market close here).

The PPI move was only about 20pts on a quick spike down and recovery back to the pre-news level and a bit more. But once the US session opened we broke higher quickly and ran a little over our 5680-5685 upside range expectation before pulling back slightly and then pushing up again making a new all-time high (by 2-ticks!) at 5708.25.

So for intraday trade & target framing our upside target made sense but the market pushed even higher to re-test the CPI spike high. So we did end up with 3 large range days in a row.