Trends still allowing for upside before another down swing

26 janv. 2023

So, again I believe that the market will have a harsh swing down coming, but yet again, I caution to wait for a good entry. While I didn't get to partake in yesterday's rally because I was stopped out before we went much lower than I expected, we did still get the upward movement that the trends called for.

I could see some more upward movement up to around 4080 before we run out of steam and potentially head back down again. We are also very close to seeing a Daily Uptrend signal here which again would be a higher high Daily Uptrend signal (the first in over a year).

Overall the trends for today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4016 Uptrend (1/25/2023) Lower High
1Hr - 4018 Uptrend (1/25/2023) Higher High
2Hr - 4037 Uptrend (1/25/2023) Higher High
3Hr - 4037 Uptrend (1/25/2023) Higher High
4Hr - 3987 Uptrend (1/20/2023) Higher High
6Hr - 4045 Uptrend (1/23/2023) Higher High
12Hr - 3993 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Lower High
Daily - 3810 Downtrend (12/28/2022) Lower Low
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low

So as we can see the issue is we are maxing out ourselves in all uptrends again, however the uptrend of the 6hr is the one that would allow us to move upward without any issue.

Economic Data;
We have GDP and Jobs data today. I'll be watching both closely.

Earnings;
Again, it is Earnings season. Lots of Earnings today with special attention to VISA, as they may provide some insight into the overall health of the economy.

My sentiment;
Shorter Term - Neutral/Bullish
Short Term - Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish
Long Term - Bearish

I will list this as a LONG position, as I think we end higher on the day overall, but be warned... I'm not committed to the position myself.

Trade safely and remember your risk management plan.

26 janv. 2023

Note

IMPORTANT ****

So after I posted this I was just looking through some longer timeframes in the event we push into a Daily Uptrend. I have a really big SHORT indicator hitting for a Weekly timeframe. I wasn't sure if I ever saw this sort of signal before, and I hadn't. So I went back to see the last time I began to see a weekly trend signal that we have entered into a downtrend market, and the last time this happened was between June to the beginning of September of 2008. The time before that was March of 2000 to August of 2000. In both cases, the signal came just before the S&P lost HALF of it's valuation from the previous peak (this case would be 4800). Obviously history doesn't define the future, but it is a pretty significant cautionary sign.

The only time before that was in 1984 when the S&P basically trading flat around 140.

26 janv. 2023

Note

GDP had some growth above expectations though still a slight decline.
Jobless claims came in not just lower than expected, but lower than last report. So the job market continues to be overly robust.

26 janv. 2023

Note

Went short at 4069

27 janv. 2023

Note

Not going to do a video today until after the PCE data

27 janv. 2023

Note

Data came in right on, except personal spending, which showed a decline.