I am short EUR/AUD (nice roll over interest too). I am by no means seeing a strong AUD however I am of the opinion that we will see a weaker EUR with further monetary easing coming from the ECB. I am happy to stay short, because of the roll over, for an extended period. A break of 1.42 would give me extra confidence in my trade. a break of 1.5340 will invalidate this count.