I have received many messages asking me how I did calculate and guess that EURUSD pair would face an upside correction until 1.10 before going down again.
I have used 3 tools on the chartist approach and 3 macro economic and policy informations.
1- In order to know the support and resistence level, always look left. And That is exactly what I did. I've looked to the next level of resistance and support. To that end, when you look left, for a very long time period, you will see that 1.10 is a solid resistance as well as a solid support level.
2- The second tool is Fibo retracement. There is always a retracement based on something, like a low and a high within a period of time. The best period for me, and the one I will take into consideration will remain the initial time by the end of October when FED's sources started to express a review on the upside of FED's interest rates. As you will see in my previous studies, I do not yet believe that FED would increase its interest rate in Summer, and the earliest ever would be 3Q15. At the same time, ECB's QE plan has been drafted and summited to the public at that very moment as well. Therefore the highest high of the period to take into consideration as far as I am concerned is 1.27705 to be precise on the upside, and on the achieved lowest low, it is 1.04569xxx). Therefore at any upside correction to date, the pair may move between 1.277XXX and 1.0469XXXX)
In that range, and based on Fibo retracement, again, the nearest Resistence level is 1.10028 i.e 1.10
3- The Third tool and for me the most important one is the Ichimoku. There the lagging span is always a very interesting indicator. And if you have an eye from the time of configuration to the 26 period before, what Lagging span did in general, you will see that the Lagging span was at 1.10041.
I also took a 4 hours Ichimoku on EURUSD to see that there was a confirmation of a "simple" correction, because of the Tenkan-Kijun Twist, with the Lagging span having crossed all the prices and the cloud. A very shy Kumo Twist and the resistance of 1.1067 appeared on the forecast based on a 4H Ichimoku.
But yet this is just the chartist approach. This has also to be confirmed by macro economoc datas and policies.
A- The initial macro economic policy data is that ECB is trying to relauch inflation through monetary policy and exchange rate. Exchange rate is important in order to import inflation to Europe through Commodities prices. The initial target of ECB was 1.15 but because of the very low price of Oil and Gas, ECB reviewed its target to a lower level, at least bellow 1 and even bellow 0.92.
Thus ECB wants to finish EU stocks in order to relaunch its production and therefore wants to favor exports before relauching the internal demand.
B- Everybody but at least me and other good experts as we call ECB watchers and FED watchers were not expecting FED to decide to increase its interest rate y now or by the summer. But what is important is not what experts know bur rather the expectation of the market. And the market was expecting a firm date or a hint about the timing and the desillusion would confirm a little upside correction.
C-Keep in mind that ECB would always intervene in the market in favor of a cheap EUR against USD as soon as EUR is too expensive, and that is what ECB did and will continue to do when the upside correction is too high. At least for the moment.
As a conclusion, the sum of chartist studies, as well as macro economic datas, maid me think seriously that EURUSD would go on the correction until 1.10 before coming down again.
I have used 3 tools on the chartist approach and 3 macro economic and policy informations.
1- In order to know the support and resistence level, always look left. And That is exactly what I did. I've looked to the next level of resistance and support. To that end, when you look left, for a very long time period, you will see that 1.10 is a solid resistance as well as a solid support level.
2- The second tool is Fibo retracement. There is always a retracement based on something, like a low and a high within a period of time. The best period for me, and the one I will take into consideration will remain the initial time by the end of October when FED's sources started to express a review on the upside of FED's interest rates. As you will see in my previous studies, I do not yet believe that FED would increase its interest rate in Summer, and the earliest ever would be 3Q15. At the same time, ECB's QE plan has been drafted and summited to the public at that very moment as well. Therefore the highest high of the period to take into consideration as far as I am concerned is 1.27705 to be precise on the upside, and on the achieved lowest low, it is 1.04569xxx). Therefore at any upside correction to date, the pair may move between 1.277XXX and 1.0469XXXX)
In that range, and based on Fibo retracement, again, the nearest Resistence level is 1.10028 i.e 1.10
3- The Third tool and for me the most important one is the Ichimoku. There the lagging span is always a very interesting indicator. And if you have an eye from the time of configuration to the 26 period before, what Lagging span did in general, you will see that the Lagging span was at 1.10041.
I also took a 4 hours Ichimoku on EURUSD to see that there was a confirmation of a "simple" correction, because of the Tenkan-Kijun Twist, with the Lagging span having crossed all the prices and the cloud. A very shy Kumo Twist and the resistance of 1.1067 appeared on the forecast based on a 4H Ichimoku.
But yet this is just the chartist approach. This has also to be confirmed by macro economoc datas and policies.
A- The initial macro economic policy data is that ECB is trying to relauch inflation through monetary policy and exchange rate. Exchange rate is important in order to import inflation to Europe through Commodities prices. The initial target of ECB was 1.15 but because of the very low price of Oil and Gas, ECB reviewed its target to a lower level, at least bellow 1 and even bellow 0.92.
Thus ECB wants to finish EU stocks in order to relaunch its production and therefore wants to favor exports before relauching the internal demand.
B- Everybody but at least me and other good experts as we call ECB watchers and FED watchers were not expecting FED to decide to increase its interest rate y now or by the summer. But what is important is not what experts know bur rather the expectation of the market. And the market was expecting a firm date or a hint about the timing and the desillusion would confirm a little upside correction.
C-Keep in mind that ECB would always intervene in the market in favor of a cheap EUR against USD as soon as EUR is too expensive, and that is what ECB did and will continue to do when the upside correction is too high. At least for the moment.
As a conclusion, the sum of chartist studies, as well as macro economic datas, maid me think seriously that EURUSD would go on the correction until 1.10 before coming down again.
