EURUSD Can this 4H Golden Cross turn it bullish long-term?

The EURUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the start of the year but since the February 22 rejection on the 1D MA50 (red trend-line), it has failed to start a new decline to a Lower Low and instead has stayed near the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up.

What is adding more to the bullish case is the formation of a 4H Golden Cross last Thursday, the first such pattern in 4 months (since October 31 2023). That was a bullish signal then, starting a very strong rally towards the December 28 2023 High.

Despite this bullish technical sentiment, since the Channel Down is intact and as long as the 1D MA50 holds, we are bearish, targeting 1.07500 initially (just below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which was the November 01 2023 pull-back target). If a 1D candle closes below 1.07300, we will resell and target Support 2 at 1.06550.

If on the other hand, we close a 1D candle above the 1D MA50, then the bullish bias of the 4H Golden Cross will prevail and we will take the loss on the sell and instead buy, targeting the -0.236 Fibonacci extension and medium-term Resistance at 1.09300 (which was the November 06 2023 bullish break-out target within the Megaphone).

Notice also how similar the 4H MACD sequence of the October - November 2023 Megaphone is to the price action now since February.


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