Technical Reason:
In impulse wave, wave 4 low cannot cross wave 1 high. As long as price stays higher than 1.34146 there is a possible scenario of wave 5 continuation. Resistance will be at 1.38 - 1.39 level. Especially 1.39 level meets with down trendline from June 2008. Stochastic is also in oversold zone.
Fundamental Reason:
Last month there were two main reasons why EUR rallied.
1. Positive market expectation on economic recovery of Eurozone countries.
2. Weakness of USD due to Government Shutdown and Delayed Tapering.
Upcoming US data could be negative because of government shutdown, especially decreased GDP growth.
So there is almost 0% of chance that Fed will start tapering in the year 2013. This will limit gains in USD.
There is a downside risk of EUR due to recent weak economic data from Eurozone, and ECB may announce dovish comments in upcoming conference. But I think in a long run investors will pay more attention back to negative US data,
delayed tapering and uncertainty in debt issue which will come back in focus next year.
Conclusion:
EUR/USD will rise to 1.38-1.39 further gain will be limited testing former high and
downside trendline from june 2008 in monthly chart.
In impulse wave, wave 4 low cannot cross wave 1 high. As long as price stays higher than 1.34146 there is a possible scenario of wave 5 continuation. Resistance will be at 1.38 - 1.39 level. Especially 1.39 level meets with down trendline from June 2008. Stochastic is also in oversold zone.
Fundamental Reason:
Last month there were two main reasons why EUR rallied.
1. Positive market expectation on economic recovery of Eurozone countries.
2. Weakness of USD due to Government Shutdown and Delayed Tapering.
Upcoming US data could be negative because of government shutdown, especially decreased GDP growth.
So there is almost 0% of chance that Fed will start tapering in the year 2013. This will limit gains in USD.
There is a downside risk of EUR due to recent weak economic data from Eurozone, and ECB may announce dovish comments in upcoming conference. But I think in a long run investors will pay more attention back to negative US data,
delayed tapering and uncertainty in debt issue which will come back in focus next year.
Conclusion:
EUR/USD will rise to 1.38-1.39 further gain will be limited testing former high and
downside trendline from june 2008 in monthly chart.