Update on GBP/CAD utilizing FXCM chart instead of Oanda

5 mars 2023

I came across one of my GBP/CAD thoughts and and saw a pattern that was screaming at me. I don't think I saw the pattern on Oanda's charts because the data only goes back to 2003 on the Monthly Charts and on FXCM it goes back even further (1976). With his added data it is clear the price is showing an inverse head and shoulders, which adds to the probability of price pushing lower, maybe 1.40. So my conviction on this pair pushes even higher and I am highly likely going to get back into this pair with the NZD/USD. If I look at the technicals some more there are lower higher also that have happened. A high made in the 80's around 2.90, then another high in 98', around 2.67 (lower then the previous), and finally in sometime in 2015, around 2.10. A huge drop from 2.67. Price is also in a descending channel, which if price does push higher, can it really reach past the 2 lvl. Highly unlikely. Price since 2016 has attempted to push higher (which coincides with BREXIT) pushing above the 1.80 lvl in 2018, and retracing, and attempting to break the 1.80 lvl, only to fall back lower. Last year price came close to hitting 1.40 with the issues going on in the UK Government. If I am correct and price does push lower, the 1.40 will be a safe level to chose. Price could hit the 1.30 lvl.

Another pair that is throwing me off though is the GBP/CHF. The pattern on the GBP/CHF is showing a strong descending wedge, which could spell out price pushing higher, and pretty significantly. The way I see this happening is if the BOE goes Super Sayian Blue Ultra Instinct and starts pushing rates up aggressively at 0.75% to 1% in succession. But this is highly unlikely as their economy walking a tight rope that has a cut in it. Additionally, it also might be a possibility if the BOE just keeps rates at 4%-5% throughout the possible recession. If so, this will line up with the BOE Governor saying that there may be the longest recession in history for the UK.