We are currently sitting in a 200 pip range on daily timeframe (last 8/9 days) but it seems as though there is a triple top on 4H. Price is currently below the neckline (20 pips below) so it would be worth shorting the pair if we saw some nice rejection once again at the neckline. I have applied my trend based fibs and the trade would give us a 1:6+ ratio with a 135 pip tp2. Also, as confluence looking on the 4H, I can see there is divergence on the MACD as there is less bullish pressure on the 8th of July compared to 2nd of July even though the price had moved up by 150 pips. In addition to this I applied a trend based fib extension to a previous descending channel and found that the 1.618 level fib target for that channel sat right at the peak of the third triple top which was formed on the 16th of July (strong rejection at that level) Also the EMA 50 and MACD are fairly neutral at the moment. I applied the fib retracement from the lowest point of this month to the highest, and found that our TP2 for the possible short position sat very close to the .5 fib retracement level.
If we do not see price move back up to the neckline we may even get a buying opportunity around the 1.25 region as it is a solid 4H support level. If there is indecision and rejection around there, a BUY with a tight SL to around the 4H resistance level (neckline) would make sense (About an 80 pip TP with a 15 pip SL).
Please leave any comments that you may have or correct me if you feel I am wrong :)
Thank you
If we do not see price move back up to the neckline we may even get a buying opportunity around the 1.25 region as it is a solid 4H support level. If there is indecision and rejection around there, a BUY with a tight SL to around the 4H resistance level (neckline) would make sense (About an 80 pip TP with a 15 pip SL).
Please leave any comments that you may have or correct me if you feel I am wrong :)
Thank you