Gold has been in a multi month flag consolidation and has been tightening volatility the whole time, and has been in a squeeze, waiting for a direction to go for a few months now. We've been holding steady above the monthly 30, and just recently reclaimed the 8 MA, which has acted as dynamic resistance. The main key level I see is 1840-1850, as it acted as support when gold was pushing 2000+ and it has recently acted as resistance. IF and only if gold can get a monthly closure above the August '21 highs, then I would say that there's a pretty damn good chance that it squeezes again to the upside.
GLD options volatility have not priced in the probability of another large move, and they only have about 100 spot price points of movement priced into gold to either the upside or downside in the next full year. I'm calling BS on this. The market likes to price volatility on the assumption that what has happened in the past will continue to happen, but I know the monthly squeezes on gold can absolutely go higher than you can imagine.
So if I get the monthly closure I want, I'll buy the Jan '23 180 calls on GLD which is about 1950 spot price roughly, but we could easily go above 2000 in a year, and the expansion of volatility will squeeze the Vega on my calls and lead to even greater profits. I'll take profit on some options after 5-6 months depending on price action to take advantage of that volatility expansion, and hold the rest until expiry. No stop loss. If we get a doji and close under on the monthly I'll exit earlier than 1 yr.
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