goldenBear88

After Bullish boost yesterday / Tight session today

TVC:GOLD   CFD sur Or (US$/OZ)
Regarding August-September cycle, I am on #21 Profits and only #2 Stop-loss hits. Tight session today and personally, I don’t think that current session can deliver anything important. Gold remains strong on a near new Intra-day High but there are certain aspects that make me sceptical on whether or not this can be sustainable. Those are: Extremely strong Sell-off on Bond notes with the #5Y near the October Support. In addition to that the DX has reversed Intra-day and is near a #4 day Low. Stock markets are also near their #15 day Resistance (bought back yesterday's Low). Based on the above, Gold shouldn’t be below its #1,888.80 Medium-term Support. The RSI both on the Daily chart and Hourly 4 chart is idle at best. However, with the Stimulus uncertainty rising, I won't be surprised to see a very negative week on Stock markets, which would be Bullish for Gold (only if #1,920.80 breaks) and pause the downtrend. If #1,904.80 holds also today, I will engage my set of Buys with #1,930.80 Target and Daily chart #MA50 extension. My advice would be to wait for the right opportunity to add Buys and that's definitely not now on opening. The Resistance broke yesterday (#1,904.80) but shortly after Gold rebounded and is currently within the (former) #1,905.80 - #1,915.80 Resistance fractal. The Hourly 4 chart is at it’s highest RSI since August #12 but Daily chart’s #MA50 is well preserved since June #5. These are negative signs for the Medium-term Buyers but like I discussed last week (Daily chart is on a healthy Channel Down), the market has turned to fundamentals again for direction as Stimulus news are on top of my importance list. Failure to deliver a supportive sentiment may panic the Stock markets more and Gold may suffer double the effect as DX continues to gain in value with Investors using it as safe haven (note that this is similar to what happened in February and early March). If Gold holds yesterday's Low’s it can pierce the #1,927.80 (within #2 sessions), otherwise look to sell towards the August #12th #1.865.80 Lower Low. It is important to keep in mind that Gold is a Channel Down on Daily chart and #1,920.80 can be ultimate Top and rejection point. Trade the Breakout.

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