INDIGOPNTS: Trendline Breakout Post Q2FY26, Chart of the Week

Why INDIGOPNTS Could Be Your Next Multi-Bagger: Breaking Out After a Brutal 60% Correction Post Good Q2 FY26 Numbers: Let's Analyze in Chart of The Week

As per the Latest SEBI Mandate, this isn't a Trading/Investment RECOMMENDATION nor for Educational Purposes; it is just for Informational purposes only. The chart data used is 3 Months old, as Showing Live Chart Data is not allowed according to the New SEBI Mandate.

Disclaimer: "I am not a SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND INVESTMENT ADVISER."
This analysis is intended solely for informational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is advisable to consult a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.

Price Action Analysis:

Historical Price Movement:

- The stock experienced a steep downtrend from its all-time high of approximately ₹2,695 in early 2022, declining over 60% to a low of ₹910 by mid-2024
- A prolonged bear market spanning nearly two years created a massive consolidation zone between ₹1,000 and ₹1,600 during 2023-2024
- Recent price action shows a strong bullish candle in November 2024, breaking above the downward trendline with significant momentum
- The current price of ₹1,298.80 represents a sharp recovery from the lows, gaining approximately ₹294.70, or 29.35%, in the recent move

Trendline Analysis:

- A clear falling trendline (marked in cyan on the chart) connected the lower highs from the 2022 peak through mid-2024
- This trendline acted as dynamic resistance, rejecting multiple rally attempts throughout 2023 and early 2024
- The recent breakout above this multi-year trendline occurred with strong price and volume confirmation, suggesting a potential trend reversal
- The breakout candle shows conviction with a decisive close above the trendline resistance

Price Structure:

- The stock formed a descending triangle pattern from 2022 to 2024, with lower highs and relatively flat lows around ₹900-₹1,000
- Post-Q2FY26 results (released in early November 2024), the stock has shown explosive upside momentum
- The recent surge created a bullish engulfing pattern on the weekly timeframe, signaling strong buyer interest

Volume Spread Analysis:

Volume Trends:

- Volume during the downtrend was relatively subdued, indicating lack of aggressive selling pressure
- The recent breakout candle shows significantly elevated volume at 7.67 million shares, representing 587.73 thousand volume units
- This volume spike confirms genuine buying interest and institutional participation in the breakout
- Volume expansion during the rally validates the authenticity of the price move

Volume-Price Relationship:

- The correlation between rising prices and expanding volume suggests healthy accumulation
- Previous attempts to break the trendline failed due to insufficient volume support
- Current volume levels are approximately 3-4x the average, indicating strong conviction among market participants

Key Technical Levels:

Support Levels:

- Primary Support (S1): ₹1,200—This represents the previous resistance zone that should now act as support
- Secondary Support (S2): ₹1,100 - The breakout point from the falling trendline
- Major Support (S3): ₹1,000-₹1,006 - Strong psychological level and previous consolidation base
- Ultimate Support (S4): ₹910 - The 52-week low acts as the ultimate floor

Resistance Levels:

- Immediate Resistance (R1): ₹1,400 - Near-term psychological barrier
- Intermediate Resistance (R2): ₹1,600 - Previous consolidation zone highs from 2023-2024
- Major Resistance (R3): ₹1,800 - Key supply zone from the downtrend phase
- Long-term Resistance (R4): ₹2,200-₹2,400 - Retracement levels toward the all-time high

Base Formation:

- A solid base has been established between ₹900 and ₹900-₹1,100 over an extended 18-month period
- This accumulation zone represents significant institutional buying at lower levels
- The base demonstrates strong hands holding the stock, reducing downside volatility
- Multiple tests of the ₹900-₹1,000 zone without breaking down confirms strong demand

Technical Patterns:

Reversal Patterns:

- A falling wedge/descending triangle pattern formed from 2022 to 2024, which is typically a bullish reversal pattern
- The pattern shows lower highs with relatively consistent lows, indicating selling exhaustion
- A breakout from this multi-year pattern suggests a major trend change is underway

Candlestick Patterns:

- The recent weekly candle shows strong bullish characteristics with a large body and minimal upper shadow
- The candle closed near its high, indicating buyer dominance throughout the period
- Previous candles show a transition from consolidation to expansion phase

Fundamental Backdrop:

Company Overview:

- Indigo Paints is India's fourth-largest decorative paints company with strong brand recognition
- The company operates three manufacturing facilities located in Jodhpur, Kochi, and Pudukkottai
- Headquartered in Pune, Maharashtra, the company was founded in 2000 and listed on stock exchanges in 2021
- Known for innovative product launches and being first-to-market with several differentiated paint solutions

Recent Financial Performance:

- Q2FY26 revenue grew 3.45% year-on-year to ₹298 Cr., though net income grew 5.85% to ₹26 Cr, due to competitive pressures
- Gross margins expanded to 45.1% from 44.1% in the previous year, driven by softening raw material costs and premium product focus
- EBITDA margin improved to 15.3% from 14.8%, reflecting operational efficiency gains
- The company has expanded its dealer network to over 18,900 active dealers and more than 11,650 tinting machines

Growth Catalysts:

- Management expects double-digit volume growth by Q4FY25, supported by strong leading indicators like dealer fund inflows and painter token scanning
- Extended monsoon impacted August sales, but July and September showed robust growth momentum
- The company is focusing on premium product mix to defend margins against aggressive competition from new entrants
- Expansion into project sales and construction chemicals segments provides new revenue streams

Sectoral Outlook:

Indian Paint Industry Overview:

- The Indian paints and coatings market is estimated at USD 10.46 billion in 2025 and expected to reach USD 16.38 billion by 2030, growing at 9.38% CAGR
- Architectural applications account for 77.56% of market demand in 2024, driven by India's construction boom
- The decorative segment accounts for nearly 75% of total demand, with 80% coming from repainting activity
- Repainting cycles have shortened from 7-8 years to just 4-5 years, accelerating demand growth

Competitive Landscape:

- New players like Birla Opus, JSW Paints, and Pidilite have entered with aggressive strategies and significant capital expenditure
- Birla Opus alone plans to increase industry capacity by 40% over the next three years, aiming to become the second-largest manufacturer by 2025
- Revenue growth slowed to 4% in FY24 after 14-15% CAGR between FY19 and FY23 due to price cuts and competitive pressures
- Despite margin pressure, established players like Indigo maintain advantage through distribution networks and brand loyalty

Industry Drivers:

- Residential unit sales surged 30% year-on-year to 474,000 units in 2024, supported by PM Awas Yojana affordable housing scheme
- The government plans to construct 30 million affordable houses over the next five years through PM Awas Yojana
- Rising disposable incomes, urbanization, and lifestyle changes are compressing repaint intervals in major cities
- Infrastructure projects under Bharatmala and Sagarmala are driving demand for industrial and protective coatings

Bull Case:

- A technical breakout from multi-year falling trendline with strong volume confirmation suggests major trend reversal
- Established player with differentiated product portfolio and strong gross margins outperforming peers
- Sector tailwinds from government infrastructure push and housing demand provide multi-year growth runway
- Valuation correction of 60% from peak creates attractive entry point for long-term wealth creation
- Management's focus on premium products and margin expansion positions company well against competition

Bear Case:

- Intense competition from well-capitalized new entrants (JSW, Birla Opus) could pressure market share
- Slower-than-expected volume growth in Q2FY26 raises concerns about demand momentum
- Margins vulnerable to aggressive pricing by competitors offering trade discounts
- An elongated monsoon and macroeconomic uncertainties could impact near-term performance
- Stock has rallied sharply in short period, creating potential for profit-booking

Key Monitoring Points:

- Track quarterly volume growth trajectory to confirm management's guidance of double-digit growth by Q4
- Monitor gross margin trends to ensure premium strategy is working despite competitive intensity
- Watch dealer expansion metrics and market share data versus new entrants
- Observe raw material price trends, particularly crude-linked derivatives impacting costs
- Follow infrastructure spending and housing sales data as leading indicators for industry demand

My 2 Cents:

- The stock has decisively broken out from a multi-Week falling trendline resistance with exceptional volume support
- Multiple technical factors align favorably: pattern breakout, volume confirmation, base formation, and momentum shift
- Risk-reward ratio remains attractive even after the recent rally, particularly on any pullback to ₹1,200 levels
- The base formation between ₹900 and ₹900-₹1,100 provides strong downside support for long-term holders
- While near-term earnings growth is muted due to competition, the long-term sector outlook remains robust
- The company's focus on operational efficiency and margin expansion is yielding results despite challenges

INDIGOPNTS presents a compelling asymmetric risk-reward opportunity where the technical setup, fundamental improvement trajectory, and sectoral tailwinds are aligning after a prolonged correction. The breakout from a multi-year base with strong volume support provides a high-conviction entry point for wealth creation over the next 12-24 months.

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As per the Latest SEBI Mandate, this isn't a Trading/Investment RECOMMENDATION nor for Educational Purposes; it is just for Informational purposes only. The chart data used is 3 Months old, as Showing Live Chart Data is not allowed according to the New SEBI Mandate.

Disclaimer: "I am not a SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND INVESTMENT ADVISER."
This analysis is intended solely for informational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is advisable to consult a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.