Neutral trade on IYR,58% probability (Strangle)

The Implied Volatility Rank of IYR is at 65 and with a down move of around 6% in the last 20 days, I expect we are going to start a correction soon around the value area. So I decided to sell a Strangle to collect some premium. With 37 days to expiration I Sold the 80/76 Strangle for 0.95 credit. That will give me a 58% probability to make money, but if I close it when the price of the strangle reach 0.48 my probabilities jump to 80%, so that's the plan.


The Trade:
Expiration = Feb 16
Sell 80 Call
Sell 76 Put
Credit Received = $0.95 ea
Probability of profit 58%

Trade fermée: ordre d’arrêt atteint:

Wanted to freed up capital so I took the loss on this one.