Gold’s Compression Coil Looks Ready to Detonate

MGC continues to reject the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from the $3,386.5 swing high, currently trading at $3,347.3. Price has now spent multiple candles trapped under this level, unable to reclaim $3,355, with clear upper wicks and no bullish follow-through.

This is classic midday NY session compression, often setting up a late-day directional move. All signs currently point to continuation lower toward $3,306.2, completing a textbook measured move.

Staakd Probability Model
Based on historical setups where MGC pulls back to 50% and stalls mid-NY:

Scenario Probability
- Continuation down to $3,306.2 68% High-probability path if $3,347 breaks
- Sweep to $3,355–$3,360 before drop. 26%. Possible liquidity grab
- Break and hold above $3,360 6% Invalidation of the short idea

Key Levels
Level
- 100% Fib High $3,386.5 - Swing high
- Supply Zone $3,347–$3,355 - Rejection area + equilibrium zone
- Current Price $3,347.3 - Compression below fib midpoint
- Target Zone $3,306.2 - Measured move / demand structure
- Invalidation $3,360.0+ - Break above this invalidates the short

Trade Idea (Pending Trigger)
- Bias: Bearish
- Entry Zone: $3,345–$3,350
- Target: $3,306.2
- Invalidation: Above $3,360
- Reward-to-Risk: 2.2R–2.5R depending on entry execution

This is shaping into a high-probability continuation setup. NY session has done the heavy lifting: a weak bounce, heavy rejections, and no reclaim of structure. Unless we see a sudden reclaim of $3,355 or a spike in late NY volume, this looks ready to break and expand lower. Keep it simple. Trust the structure. Let price walk itself to the target.