NIO needs some consolidation to build up momentum.
Mis à jour
Due to popular demand, I've taken my first look at 
NIO. Predicting the next move has proven difficult in this particular setting. In the following, I will list all the bullish and bearish factors I have seen in the chart. I will not consider fundamentals.
Bullish:
Bearish:
Sideways/Consolidation:
Whether we're going up or down in the coming week, price needs time to consolidate. Time makes RSI and moving averages adjust, catch up with price, and come back to normal levels where investors are more comfortable. Normal RSI levels mean less volatility. Extreme RSI levels mean more volatility. So if a bullish run occurs at these levels, expect volatility and expect sudden reversals. On the other hand, a bullish momentum that you can be more confident of as a daily observer occurs with one of the two scenarios I drew with the green and red curved arrows. These scenarios are following certain levels of RSI I'm targeting. I will keep updating this idea regarding this particular move.
Conclusion:
NIO. Predicting the next move has proven difficult in this particular setting. In the following, I will list all the bullish and bearish factors I have seen in the chart. I will not consider fundamentals.Bullish:
- The thick ascending trend line looks like it will hold, especially that we are in a bull market. That means that the more touches and reversals this line sees, the stronger it is as support. In a bear market, the more touches, the more it is likely to break. This means that we don't expect price to go below $52 this coming week.
- The last candle is almost solid green and it also gapped up. That is a bullish signal for the next day.
- The next candle will be a green 2 on the TD setup. If that trades above the last candle (the green 1), that is a signal for a new bullish momentum.
- The last candle cleanly broke above the short-term descending trend line that started on the 11 January top. That makes this same line good support.
Bearish:
- RSI divergence. See my TRYUSD idea if you need to understand RSI divergence. Here, we see significant RSI divergence that makes me believe price will sink slowly towards the previous RSI high at $42.
Sideways/Consolidation:
Whether we're going up or down in the coming week, price needs time to consolidate. Time makes RSI and moving averages adjust, catch up with price, and come back to normal levels where investors are more comfortable. Normal RSI levels mean less volatility. Extreme RSI levels mean more volatility. So if a bullish run occurs at these levels, expect volatility and expect sudden reversals. On the other hand, a bullish momentum that you can be more confident of as a daily observer occurs with one of the two scenarios I drew with the green and red curved arrows. These scenarios are following certain levels of RSI I'm targeting. I will keep updating this idea regarding this particular move.
Conclusion:
- A bullish move this week will cause volatility. So trade it carefully.
- In my prediction, I'm leaning towards a consolidation in the next two weeks before we can see the next big move upwards.
- As a long-term investor, do dollar-cost-averaging considering $42 as a bottom. The buying points are: (1) if we break above $62.20, (2) If we hit the ascending trend line (around $53), and (3) the horizontal support of $42.
Note
Consolidation is happening as predicted. I'm waiting for price to touch the rising trend line in order to be confident of opening a long position.Note
The retest happened, so now we can invest with confidence. RSI is low too.
Note
Note
Golden opportunity for entry.
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