NQ/QQQ Weekly levels (Oct 17-21)

Coming off highly volatile week. Nasdaq closed down 3.22 % after trading in a range of 750 points. Nasdaq has opened the week back where it closed after the Thursday reversal reclaiming all of Friday’s pull back. Price sits at the Jun 16th low and the 9ema. The main consideration is whether or not the recent bullish price action is simply a retest of the June 16th breakdown or the beginning of a new up trend. The June 16th low (11068) is key. A move above that level through the downward trendline would be very bullish. Must break Fridays high for trend continuation. If price rejects in the resistance zone (red box) a move back down to the recent lows is possible.

• Extreme volatility continues
• Big 648 pt reversal off 1.272 Fib X on Thursday
• 60% retracement back down Friday now up 250 pts overnight
• Earnings season has begun
• Strong period for Tech has begun
• Lighter week for economic data
• Santa rally talk will start and focus on retail leading into Black Friday
• Ukraine war still shock potential
• Inflation & yields still a market drive
• Focus may shift to how business are handling high inflation
• Bank earnings + TSLA and NFLX may drive market sentiment

WEEKLY EVENTS

Monday NY Fed Manufacturing
Tuesday US Industrial Production, Fed’s Bostic & Kashkari speak
Wednesday Euro CPI, Can CPI, US EIA Crude Inventories + Feds Kashkari & Evans speak
Thursday US Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales, Fed’s Cook & Jefferson speak
Friday Fed’d William Speaks, Canadian Retail Sales

NOTABLE EARNINGS

Monday BAC, SCHW
Tuesday GS, HAS, JNJ, LMT, SI, IBKR, ISRG, NFLX
Wednesday ABT, ALLY, ASML, BKR, PG, TRV, AA, IBM, KMI, LRCX, LVS, TLSA
Thursday AAL, T, BX, DOW, FCX, NUE, PM DGX, TSCO, UNP
Friday BJRI, CSX, SNAP, THC, WHR

BULLISH NOTES

Coming off massive bullish reversal
Earnings season momentum
Potential positive news from Ukraine
Potential dovish comment from Fed Heads
Potential drop in USD
Oversold conditions may entice buyers

BEARISH NOTES

Price still below 9/21/55ema
Price below June 16th low
Massive reversal my just be retest of Jun 16th brk down
Below downward trend line
Potential War shock
Potential negative reaction to earnings
Potential rise in yields and USD

Commentaire:

Big move up to bottom of the resistance box. Some sellers coming in now. May still have room to the downward trend line. Key spot above is the white arrow. If price rejects the June 16th level a sharp move down is possible.

Commentaire:

Big over night move pushed price through Friday's high and the downward trendline. Targets above are identified by the lines. After a big move I always expect consolidation or a fade back down to support. A break of the overnight high would very bullish.

Commentaire:

Volatility continues with big intraday swings. Price continues to resolve to the upside however. The initial rejection of the 21 ema this morning was reclaimed after hours. Price now sits at the 21ema and at the top of the resistance box. A break above puts the Oct 6th high in play.

Commentaire:

Big 275 pt overnight reversal so the top of the resistance box held (21 ema). Key level remains the June 16th low. Bulls want price above, bears below.

Commentaire:

NQ continues to work the Jun 16th low and the downward trendline. Keep is simple. Bullish above and bearish below. Targets on a break from consolidation would be the high or low of the recent range. Expect hard reversals.

Commentaire:

Price took of from the June 16th level as it broke from consolidation off the open this morning but was met with resistance again at the top of the red box. Price retraced a 100% into the close finishing back at the June low. Expect lower price below the box.

Commentaire:

200+ move off the overnight lows so far. Above the Jun low and pushing higher. Upside target is the downward trendline and yesterdays RTH high. White arrow.

Commentaire:

Upside target achieved. Didn't capitalize like I wanted on the move (as noted in my trades posted on social media), but clearly a strong move to finish the week.