NQ/QQQ Weekly Level (Jan 23-27)
The Nasdaq 100 closed last week up 0.59% after trading within a range of 426 points. The price dropped early in the week but recovered strongly on Friday, finding support at the 21-day exponential moving average. Weakness in the consumer staples and utilities sectors was offset by strength in the communication services, technology, and consumer discretionary sectors. The 10-year yield and DXY dipped early in the week but closed Friday relatively unchanged. The market is pricing in a recession and an eventual pivot by the Federal Reserve. There is potential for a rotational shift away from defensive sectors. Earnings season continues with key reports from companies such as Visa, Mastercard, Boeing, Chevron, 3M, IBM, Johnson & Johnson, and Tesla. The price remains above the 9-day, 21-day and 55-day exponential moving averages with the 200-day simple moving average within striking distance. The longer-term downward trend line is still in play and should be treated as resistance until proven otherwise. The PCE data due out on Friday is the most important economic data of the week.
• Nasdaq closed week up .59 % after trading in a 426 point range
• Priced dropped early last week but recovered strongly on Friday after finding support at the 21 ema
• Weakness in the the XLP, XLU sectors was offset by strength in XLC, XLK & XLY.
• The 10 year yield and DXY dipped early in the week but closed Friday relatively unchanged
• Market is pricing in a recession and an eventual Fed pivot
• Potential rotational shift away from defensive sectors
• Earnings season continues with key reports from V, MA, BA, CVX, MMM, IBM, JNJ & TSLA
• Price remains above the 9/21/55 emas with the 200 sma within striking distance
• The longer term downward trend line is still in play and should be treated as resistance until its not
• PCE data on Friday the most important econ data due out this week.
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Nothing Notable
Tuesday US PMI Flash
Wednesday BoC Rate decision, EIA Crude Inventories
Thursday US Initial Jobless Claims, US Durable Goods, US GDP Advance & US New Home Sales
Friday US PCE, US Consumer Spending & University of Mich. Sentiment
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday BKR, LOGI, FNB
Tuesday CNI, COF, DHI, GE, HAL, JNJ, LMT, MMM, TXN, UNP, VZ
Wednesday ABT, ADP, BA, CSX, EW, FCX, GD, HES, IBM, KMB, LEVI, NOW, STLD, STX, T, TSLA, URI, TER
Thursday AAL, ADM, BX, DB, INTC, LUV, MA, NOC, NUE, SHW, V, VLO, WY
Friday AXP, CL, CVX
BULLISH NOTES
Price above 9/21/55 ema
Price above June 16th low and has made higher low
200 sma price magnet
Earnings momentum
Potential positive reaction to earnings
Potential positive reaction to PCE data
Potential short covering rally if trendline is broken
SPX closed 4 points above the 200 SMA
BEARISH NOTES
Price remains in longer term down trend
Potential rejection at downward trendline
Potential negative reaction to earnings
Potential negative reaction to PCE data
Recession fears
Possible shock event ( war escalation)
S&P rejection again at 200 sma may bring market down
• Nasdaq closed week up .59 % after trading in a 426 point range
• Priced dropped early last week but recovered strongly on Friday after finding support at the 21 ema
• Weakness in the the XLP, XLU sectors was offset by strength in XLC, XLK & XLY.
• The 10 year yield and DXY dipped early in the week but closed Friday relatively unchanged
• Market is pricing in a recession and an eventual Fed pivot
• Potential rotational shift away from defensive sectors
• Earnings season continues with key reports from V, MA, BA, CVX, MMM, IBM, JNJ & TSLA
• Price remains above the 9/21/55 emas with the 200 sma within striking distance
• The longer term downward trend line is still in play and should be treated as resistance until its not
• PCE data on Friday the most important econ data due out this week.
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Nothing Notable
Tuesday US PMI Flash
Wednesday BoC Rate decision, EIA Crude Inventories
Thursday US Initial Jobless Claims, US Durable Goods, US GDP Advance & US New Home Sales
Friday US PCE, US Consumer Spending & University of Mich. Sentiment
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday BKR, LOGI, FNB
Tuesday CNI, COF, DHI, GE, HAL, JNJ, LMT, MMM, TXN, UNP, VZ
Wednesday ABT, ADP, BA, CSX, EW, FCX, GD, HES, IBM, KMB, LEVI, NOW, STLD, STX, T, TSLA, URI, TER
Thursday AAL, ADM, BX, DB, INTC, LUV, MA, NOC, NUE, SHW, V, VLO, WY
Friday AXP, CL, CVX
BULLISH NOTES
Price above 9/21/55 ema
Price above June 16th low and has made higher low
200 sma price magnet
Earnings momentum
Potential positive reaction to earnings
Potential positive reaction to PCE data
Potential short covering rally if trendline is broken
SPX closed 4 points above the 200 SMA
BEARISH NOTES
Price remains in longer term down trend
Potential rejection at downward trendline
Potential negative reaction to earnings
Potential negative reaction to PCE data
Recession fears
Possible shock event ( war escalation)
S&P rejection again at 200 sma may bring market down
Commentaire:
NQ coming into the first downward trendline. Move above would be very bullish especially if the ES breaks the 200. Next target would be the Dec here zone.
Commentaire:
Right at the trend line now. I would expect a p/b here or at least some consolidation. If it break look for some heavy short covering.
Commentaire:
Broke above the trendline yesterday but is now retesting the line. Price needs to hold the line for bullish continuation. So far the initial gap down was filled but the price quickly rejected back down.
Commentaire:
Traded above the trendline yesterday, but broke back below the trendline on MFST and BA earnings. Watching for a gap fill here. A failed gap fill especially one less than 50% would be bearish.
Commentaire:
Recovered the trendline which is positive but very choppy right now going into PCE. Targets above remain the same. Needs to hold the trendline for bullish continuation.
Commentaire:
Commentaire:
Sticking with the trend. Expecting resistance as price come into the targets.
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