NZDUSD H4 Potential Setup

At the moment we have NZDUSD following a nice bullish channel, it has broken the daily trendline (dotted) however rejected a resistance level of 0.68961. I will now be watching to see whether it continues to follow the bullish channel upwards if it falls to the trendline and rejects. If it does reject the trendline and remain bullish I can see it then breaking the resistance level that was earlier respected and continuing up. If not, it may break the channel and short to at least the 0.68300 level where it will meet a support which has previously held up.

This evening we have four news releases coming out of New Zealand with regards to their trade balances and import / export numbers. Looking at the consensus of the releases it is a difficult one to be confident with, I will be waiting for either a move to the downside and a break of the channel or a rejection and upside movement to around the 0.69500 psychological level.