fionnablack

NZDUSD short... risky business

Short
FX:NZDUSD   Dollar Néo-Zélandais / Dollar Américain
Idea: This weeks topic of conversation has been nu short trades. There has been a lot of talk on the chat about NZDUSD heavily retracing and some interesting psychological FOMO going on. The daily RSI is over bought and the weekly looks like it is approaching over bought again. To me this is easily a dip buy until the weekly is over bought. I can't see the reversal that is being widely talked about...but that doesn't mean its not there. In an effort to see the flip side of the trade, the only short entry I could find was on an hourly chart. To me it looks more like a 4hr retrace than the whole trend suffering a steep reversal.

Pros: If the price goes as high as 0.7366 then the trade at least makes sense mathematically (13:1) on risk reward.

Cons: There doesn't appear to be any clear or serious reversal signals. The trend will most likely hit the weekly over bought. Trading against such a strong trend can easily whipsaw the trade and I am expecting the trade idea to fail. There are more interesting short trades this week than one that is fighting a strong daily trend... in my opinion.



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