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Rivian (RIVN): Strategic Risks

1. Delivery & Sales Performance

Annual Decline: Rivian delivered 42,247 vehicles in 2025, an 18% decrease compared to 51,579 units in 2024.

Q4 Underperformance: Deliveries fell 31% YoY (9,745 units), missing the consensus expectation of 10,100 units.

Guidance: The company narrowed its annual forecast to 41.5k–43.5k units. Currently, growth is limited by market demand rather than production capacity.

2. Market Challenges & Competition

Tax Credit Expiration: The end of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit is negatively impacting sales.

Intense Competition: In 2026, the R2 platform enters a saturated market against the updated Tesla Model Y, Hyundai Ioniq 5, Kia EV6, and Chevrolet Equinox EV.

Pricing Wars: Ford (F-150 Lightning) and GM (Silverado EV) are using their scale to aggressively cut prices.

Global Expansion: Chinese manufacturers (BYD, Zeekr) are expanding into Western markets; Rivian lacks the margins to compete in a price war.

3. Technology & R2 Platform Roadmap

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