"Crash landing" instead of "soft landing"?

15 mars 2023

Yesterday, U.S. inflation came up in line with expectations, and the market continued to enjoy relief after last week’s route. However, while the FED is progressing in fighting soaring prices, many problems are still on the horizon (declining corporate profits, rising unemployment, the persistence of tight monetary policy, problems in the banking sector, etc.). As such, market developments are starting to align for the “crash landing” instead of the “soft landing” that everyone was so eager to forecast just a month or two ago. With that said, we remain bearish on the U.S. stock market and expect it to decline by 20-30% in the coming months. Accordingly, we maintain our price target for SPX at $3 400.

Illustration 1.01

The picture above shows the daily chart of SPX and simple support/resistance levels.

Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bearish
Weekly time frame = Slightly bearish

Illustration 1.02

Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of SPX. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish crossover between 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA.

Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.

DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.