It looks really bad. It does appear we are in a much larger bear market which is very early innings
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The bear market rally has been on since mid June. Min target 4200
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So far has followed the script to the T
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So far the market runs a month ahead as the high was in August, so likely the low is in Oct
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Pretty good outline but it is likely timeline has accelerated into the 1Q23
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So lowering potential target to 2450/2500 into 4Q23
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So far the long term pattern has developed in a similar way. Some indexes will make a new lower low, some will not
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I wrote this exactly a year ago...and lo and behold SPX is exactly where it should be now within the big picture
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Mid June to late July/early Aug is most likely volatile period with a potential for a sizable decline. Based on the nature of that decline, the current uptrend from mid March could subdivide. Meaning intermediate term low in later summer followed by a higher high into 4Q. But it will depend on the nature of the expected pullback (impulse vs corrective)
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This has worked incredibly well especially since I drew it in June 2022. But the expected decline into October will be a higher low vs March 2023
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The pattern most likely morphs into a triangle or diagonal. Which basically means that any downward leg mostly likely will target 3960s at its end. The potential Oct low could be just a temp low of the larger downleg or the penultimate low before the final peak of the Oct 2022 rise (potentially extending into Jan 2024). This is what happens when one is dealing with corrective structures, too much variability
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I am still amazed how well this tracked. The last turn down was expected in May/Jun 2023 at 4500 and the actual happened in late July at 4600! Not too shabby for something that was sketched in June 2022!
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The last wave down is very likely to be more protracted into 2025. Next year several multi-year cycles coincide which again means 20 to 35% decline again, but likely more protracted in time
