What's going on with all the revisions?

11 mars

Month after month, the United States has been reporting strong labor market conditions and lots of new jobs being created. However, revisions to past data are often less talked about in the media, which might tell a somewhat different story than headline numbers at the time of their announcement. Friday’s report shows that nonfarm payrolls rose by 275,000 in February 2024; meanwhile, gains for December 2023 and January 2024 were revised down by a combined 167,000 jobs. This follows a streak of similar revisions to the previously reported data. For example, combined job gains for October 2023 and November 2023 were revised down by 71,000 jobs. Further, the combined data for August 2023 and September 2023 were revised down by 101,000 jobs. But that’s not where all the revisions end. The list goes on, with combined jobs gained for June 2023 and July 2023 revised down by 110,000 and combined data for April 2023 and May 2023 by the same figure of 110,000 jobs. Similarly, the data for the first three months of 2023 were also revised lower by 162,000 jobs. Consequently, about 721,000 fewer jobs were created than initially reported between January 2023 and January 2024.

Illustration 1.01

The unemployment rate in the United States rose to 3.9% in February 2024, reaching the highest level since January 2022. Historically, in the past 70 years, every 1% rise (from lows) in unemployment was accompanied by a recession.

Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bullish (losing momentum)
Weekly time frame = Bullish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.

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