In every even year S&P 500 reaches its ATH in Q1, which is followed by rapid and deep decline.
Why can it crash? Look how similar S&P 500 behaviour between May 1986-December 1987 and October 2022-February 2024.
The 1987 crash started on the way from 1.414 to 1.618 fibo.
If the S&P 500 hasn't already topped on Feb 2 with a value of 4975, then the price range between the Fibonacci levels of 1.414 (5025) and 1.618 (5235) is the potential topping zone. From February 2 to mid-March, the peak is expected to occur.
I'm not saying we will definitely crash, but a significant downward movement is anticipated soon.
Basic scenario bottom: 4250-4500 Mid March - Mid May
Crash scenario bottom: 3500-4250 Mid March - Mid May
If the S&P 500 hasn't already topped on Feb 2 with a value of 4975, then the price range between the Fibonacci levels of 1.414 (5025) and 1.618 (5235) is the potential topping zone. From February 2 to mid-March, the peak is expected to occur.
I'm not saying we will definitely crash, but a significant downward movement is anticipated soon.
Basic scenario bottom: 4250-4500 Mid March - Mid May
Crash scenario bottom: 3500-4250 Mid March - Mid May
Commentaire:
It was an ideal opportunity to sell today 05/23/2024 right after NVIDIA Earnings Report. ATH or major intermediate peak has been probably set. Establishing short positions is preferrable now.
Basic scenario bottom: 4550-4850
Crash scenario bottom: 3800-4550
The Accurately calculated Fibonacci 1.618 level is 5296.44, 2% leeway 5402.37. The SPX faces strong resistance in the 5200-5400 area. Calendar events to watch:
05/15/2024: US CPI Report
05/22/2024: NVIDIA Earnings Report
Better move into cash.