Daily chart for SP500
So I saw someone else's idea about wave count with the SP500 and he may be correct. I was always wondering about the correction we had that ended in November. As you can see it dipped well below the August 15th peak. That is not suppose to happen if that was a Wave 4 corrective move. So another person had an idea that the end of the Brexit dip was nothing but the end of a very large correction from the previous large long rally. So I moved the wave count as it is now shown on the chart in blue. That would mean that we are just starting wave 4 correction which shouldn't be as deep (percentage) as wave 2 was. So that would bring this correction to most likely the purple line channel and at best we should not break the bold black horizontal line. A break of that black line would once again nullify this wave count. Not to mention, we are only due for a short term cycle correction "DCL" and not due for a ICL for a couple months. That being said, I am going to guess that we have the next rate hike on May 2nd which should help trigger the ICL to start.
I am currently in TVIX right now for a small gain. I do not see this dip lasting much longer this week. I do not think I will revisit the VIX until we are due for a bigger better drop in the SP500 DCL in March.
So I saw someone else's idea about wave count with the SP500 and he may be correct. I was always wondering about the correction we had that ended in November. As you can see it dipped well below the August 15th peak. That is not suppose to happen if that was a Wave 4 corrective move. So another person had an idea that the end of the Brexit dip was nothing but the end of a very large correction from the previous large long rally. So I moved the wave count as it is now shown on the chart in blue. That would mean that we are just starting wave 4 correction which shouldn't be as deep (percentage) as wave 2 was. So that would bring this correction to most likely the purple line channel and at best we should not break the bold black horizontal line. A break of that black line would once again nullify this wave count. Not to mention, we are only due for a short term cycle correction "DCL" and not due for a ICL for a couple months. That being said, I am going to guess that we have the next rate hike on May 2nd which should help trigger the ICL to start.
I am currently in TVIX right now for a small gain. I do not see this dip lasting much longer this week. I do not think I will revisit the VIX until we are due for a bigger better drop in the SP500 DCL in March.
Commentaire:
4 hour chart for TVIX.
