The "Bull" market in Weekly and Monthly view - levels to watch
When there is high level of volatility and too much noise, stop looking at lower time frames. Go even higher than daily, and check Weekly + Monthly charts to see the big picture.
Monthly (right panel):
- Generally saying, strategic bull market lasts until Price holds above monthly Kijun Sen (26 months average - red line). You can check what has happened in the past of the index, whenever it closed below Kijun. -> please see previous monthly post via link below.
We had a tricky close in February/2016, which indicated possible start of bear market, but the miracle happened again, and the invisible hand saved the market once more.
Kijun Sen is higher now at 2000. This is the most important strategic level to watch.
- Primer bullish trendline drawn from the March/2009 low is also catching up, stands around 1940 this month, will get closer to Kijun Sen in coming months.
- Heikin-Ashi signal: last two months candles showed bullish consolidation with small, doji like bodies and with upper and lower wicks. This month we had a major damage to the structer, but due to short squeeze we still have a doji candle (just its wicks are longer).
haDelta is down to zero: loss of bullish momentum within the trend, neutral.
- EWO and MACD has been building a very long term negative divergence since February
- MACD seems to be quite weak in last few months.
- Market is possibly forming a multi-year bearish wedge
Weekly (left panel) - a "closer" look:
- Ichimoku setup almost turned neutral/bearish last week as market quickly break below Kijun (26 weeks average), but "Gods" of financial markets saved the Bulls once more. Setup has a bullish bias again, but with lot of headwinds and resistances above 2167.
- Supports and key levels: 2090 (Kijun) / 2000 (Forward Senkou B) = Monthly Kijun AND obviously the trendline discussed above.
- Heikin-Ashi candle back to green after a huge doji last week. haDelta is up, but its SMA3 is still at zero! DM_Oscillator is also just at zero.
- EWO is up a bit, but MACD doesn't show too much bullish power, rather a sign of "consolidation"
Which position do you think have a better upside in long term? Long, or short? I don't say it is alread time to go big short, but it is time to think about possible risk/reward of being long! Actually market "Gods" gave you more than enough time to think :-).
Keep those levels in mind! 2090 and 2000. In case of a break the move would be very quick to 1750, possibly followed by a reaction to 1900+ and then another leg lower. Market doesn't have memory, but somehow it tends to repeat patterns from time to time. Do you know why? Because some of us still have memory and focus.
Monthly (right panel):
- Generally saying, strategic bull market lasts until Price holds above monthly Kijun Sen (26 months average - red line). You can check what has happened in the past of the index, whenever it closed below Kijun. -> please see previous monthly post via link below.
We had a tricky close in February/2016, which indicated possible start of bear market, but the miracle happened again, and the invisible hand saved the market once more.
Kijun Sen is higher now at 2000. This is the most important strategic level to watch.
- Primer bullish trendline drawn from the March/2009 low is also catching up, stands around 1940 this month, will get closer to Kijun Sen in coming months.
- Heikin-Ashi signal: last two months candles showed bullish consolidation with small, doji like bodies and with upper and lower wicks. This month we had a major damage to the structer, but due to short squeeze we still have a doji candle (just its wicks are longer).
haDelta is down to zero: loss of bullish momentum within the trend, neutral.
- EWO and MACD has been building a very long term negative divergence since February
- MACD seems to be quite weak in last few months.
- Market is possibly forming a multi-year bearish wedge
Weekly (left panel) - a "closer" look:
- Ichimoku setup almost turned neutral/bearish last week as market quickly break below Kijun (26 weeks average), but "Gods" of financial markets saved the Bulls once more. Setup has a bullish bias again, but with lot of headwinds and resistances above 2167.
- Supports and key levels: 2090 (Kijun) / 2000 (Forward Senkou B) = Monthly Kijun AND obviously the trendline discussed above.
- Heikin-Ashi candle back to green after a huge doji last week. haDelta is up, but its SMA3 is still at zero! DM_Oscillator is also just at zero.
- EWO is up a bit, but MACD doesn't show too much bullish power, rather a sign of "consolidation"
Which position do you think have a better upside in long term? Long, or short? I don't say it is alread time to go big short, but it is time to think about possible risk/reward of being long! Actually market "Gods" gave you more than enough time to think :-).
Keep those levels in mind! 2090 and 2000. In case of a break the move would be very quick to 1750, possibly followed by a reaction to 1900+ and then another leg lower. Market doesn't have memory, but somehow it tends to repeat patterns from time to time. Do you know why? Because some of us still have memory and focus.
