SPY - Analysis, What to watch for, Potential opportunity
1W:
1M;
Since end of May, there has been bullish price action, however it was with relatively unimpressive volume. Light volume = Low conviction. Even though the bullish price action lacked conviction, it still was note worthy. One not worthy point is making a new HH and breaking a key resistance. Since making the HH, volume has substantially increased as prices have pulled back. Purely based on price action, yesterday was an important day because the day before was a high volume battle where neither the bulls or bears could gain control. That made yesterdays bearish candle carry more weight than it would have on it's own.
What to watch...
- For the bulls to continue to advance, they need a HL following 6/8's HH
- Two things would add credibility to a bull bias
1) we get bullish candles in the next day or two
2) the volume increase on their next push
- For the bears to regain control, they need a convincing close below 202.7. "Convincing" would be high volume and big bodied bear candle.
If the bears regain control in a convincing manner, price could retest the ~182-180 strong support zone.
Opportunities:
- I'm buying XIV if there is a strong rejection candle or bull candle around 205 - 202.8
- If that occurs, i'll also adjust some of my short positions
- If 202.7 support zone fails, i'll have to look at risk/reward of additional short positions. I want to be selective and wait for favorable conditions. This could be rangy.
Since end of May, there has been bullish price action, however it was with relatively unimpressive volume. Light volume = Low conviction. Even though the bullish price action lacked conviction, it still was note worthy. One not worthy point is making a new HH and breaking a key resistance. Since making the HH, volume has substantially increased as prices have pulled back. Purely based on price action, yesterday was an important day because the day before was a high volume battle where neither the bulls or bears could gain control. That made yesterdays bearish candle carry more weight than it would have on it's own.
What to watch...
- For the bulls to continue to advance, they need a HL following 6/8's HH
- Two things would add credibility to a bull bias
1) we get bullish candles in the next day or two
2) the volume increase on their next push
- For the bears to regain control, they need a convincing close below 202.7. "Convincing" would be high volume and big bodied bear candle.
If the bears regain control in a convincing manner, price could retest the ~182-180 strong support zone.
Opportunities:
- I'm buying XIV if there is a strong rejection candle or bull candle around 205 - 202.8
- If that occurs, i'll also adjust some of my short positions
- If 202.7 support zone fails, i'll have to look at risk/reward of additional short positions. I want to be selective and wait for favorable conditions. This could be rangy.
