SPY Analysis: Testing All-Time Highs with Weakening Momentum
Testing / Surpassed ATH
MACD 4 HR Crossing down at red arrow.
RSI 4 HR Crossing down from overbought
1 HR MFI dropping
1 HR RSI dropping down.
MACD No signal.
30 Minute MACD looks to be losing momentum downward possible reversal back towards the upside
30 Minute RSI at 50 no potential for upside or downside this is nuetral.
30 minute MFI is still high but not overbought could be a downward from.
15 Minute MACD Crossing up could signal a move upward
15 Minute RSI was close to oversold and is now pushing up.
15 Minute MFI was close to oversold now pushing back up
5 Minute 50/100 EMA: 50 EMA crossing into 100 EMA could be signaling a short but
price has bounced on it a few times now.
Despite the short-term signs of a bounce (15-minute and 5-minute signals), the broader timeframes point to weakening momentum and a lack of sustained buying pressure. The 4-hour MACD and RSI both turning downward from overbought conditions align with a potential reversal. As SPY fails to gain further traction above the ATH, it could start to roll over, targeting lower levels.
The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at $590 aligns with a key support zone, making it a logical target for a pullback. Additionally, any increase in volatility (VIX) or further weakness in momentum indicators would likely accelerate the move toward this level.
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: The ATH and current price zone (~607–610).
Support: The $600 psychological level and $590 Fibonacci retracement.
I’ll be monitoring the price action closely for confirmation of this bearish thesis. If SPY loses the short-term EMAs and momentum fails to recover, a move to $590 becomes increasingly likely. Let me know your thoughts.
MACD 4 HR Crossing down at red arrow.
RSI 4 HR Crossing down from overbought
1 HR MFI dropping
1 HR RSI dropping down.
MACD No signal.
30 Minute MACD looks to be losing momentum downward possible reversal back towards the upside
30 Minute RSI at 50 no potential for upside or downside this is nuetral.
30 minute MFI is still high but not overbought could be a downward from.
15 Minute MACD Crossing up could signal a move upward
15 Minute RSI was close to oversold and is now pushing up.
15 Minute MFI was close to oversold now pushing back up
5 Minute 50/100 EMA: 50 EMA crossing into 100 EMA could be signaling a short but
price has bounced on it a few times now.
Despite the short-term signs of a bounce (15-minute and 5-minute signals), the broader timeframes point to weakening momentum and a lack of sustained buying pressure. The 4-hour MACD and RSI both turning downward from overbought conditions align with a potential reversal. As SPY fails to gain further traction above the ATH, it could start to roll over, targeting lower levels.
The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at $590 aligns with a key support zone, making it a logical target for a pullback. Additionally, any increase in volatility (VIX) or further weakness in momentum indicators would likely accelerate the move toward this level.
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: The ATH and current price zone (~607–610).
Support: The $600 psychological level and $590 Fibonacci retracement.
I’ll be monitoring the price action closely for confirmation of this bearish thesis. If SPY loses the short-term EMAs and momentum fails to recover, a move to $590 becomes increasingly likely. Let me know your thoughts.
Transaction en cours
Quick notes that further confirm bearish idea is that we have tons of Gaps on the way down that we need to fill going past the 590 mark all the way to 585. 
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et les publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou des recommandations en matière de finance, d'investissement, de trading ou d'autres types de conseils fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.