$SPY and $SPX Scenarios — Week of Nov 24 to Nov 28, 2025

🔮 SPY and SPX Scenarios — Week of Nov 24 to Nov 28, 2025 🔮

🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
📉 Shutdown backlog week: Most major September reports finally drop on Tuesday and Wednesday — Retail Sales, PPI, Durable Goods — all of which normally move markets but are arriving late due to the October shutdown.
🏠 Housing and consumer read-through: Case Shiller, Consumer Confidence, and Pending Home Sales give traders a real-time read on the health of housing and spending as the holiday season begins.
📉 Liquidity thinning: Thanksgiving week historically brings lighter volume and sharper moves when data surprises.

📊 Key Data and Events (ET)

Below are only the trader-relevant items, with delayed reports clearly marked.

TUESDAY, NOV 25 — The Big Data Dump
⏰ 8:30 AM — Retail Sales (Delayed Sept)

Actual: 0.3 percent (vs 0.6 forecast)

⏰ 8:30 AM — Retail Sales ex-Autos (Delayed Sept)

Actual: 0.3 percent (vs 0.7 forecast)

⏰ 8:30 AM — Producer Price Index PPI (Delayed Sept)

Actual: 0.3 percent
Year over year: 2.6 percent

⏰ 8:30 AM — Core PPI (Delayed Sept)

Prior: 0.3 percent
Current: Not available due to shutdown

⏰ 8:30 AM — Core PPI Year over Year

Actual: 2.8 percent

⏰ 9:00 AM — Case Shiller Home Price Index, 20-City (Sept)

Actual: Not available
Forecast: 1.6 percent

⏰ 10:00 AM — Business Inventories (Delayed Aug)

Actual: 0.1 percent

⏰ 10:00 AM — Consumer Confidence (Nov)

Actual: 93.4 (vs 94.6 forecast)

⏰ 10:00 AM — Pending Home Sales (Oct)

Actual: 0.0 percent

WEDNESDAY, NOV 26
⏰ 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 22)

Actual: 225,000 (vs 220,000 forecast)

⏰ 8:30 AM — Durable Goods Orders (Delayed Sept)

Actual: 0.3 percent (vs 2.9 percent prior)

⏰ 8:30 AM — Durable Goods ex-Transportation (Delayed Sept)

Actual: 0.4 percent

THURSDAY, NOV 27

🦃 Thanksgiving — No economic releases

FRIDAY, NOV 28
⏰ 9:45 AM — Chicago PMI (Nov)

Forecast: 43.8

⚠️ Note: Many September reports are still delayed due to the federal government shutdown from Oct 1 to Nov 12. All delayed items are explicitly labeled above.

⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational and informational only. Not financial advice.

📌 #SPY #SPX #macro #trading #stocks #inflation #consumer #PPI #retailsales #housing #markets