SPY: Uptrend in progress

31 janv. 2016

SPY has a failed weekly range expansion decline, as well as a daily uptrend aiming for 196.
There's potential upside well into the 199 mark, which is where the next Vix spike s/r level sits.
The weekly failure implies price can retest the 203.87 mark as well, which coincides with a low volume resistance level, so I'll keep that in mind as well.
I'm long AAPL and TSLA currently, and have closed DJIA longs, but I'll be looking to rejoin on a retracement if offered.
Currently, if we fail to break the overhead resistance, we might see another decline, but it's possible this is a major low and we're bound to resume the march up in equities.

For more of this type of analysis, and frequent trade ideas and insights, stop by Tim West's 'Key Hidden Levels' chatroom.
You can find it in the following address: tradingview.com/chat/

Cheers,

Ivan Labrie.

1 févr. 2016

Note

We might get a slight retracement. If going below 189 I'd be worried on the long side.

2 févr. 2016

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Testing the middle of the vix spike support, we might dip to the mode again at 189 before further upside.

2 févr. 2016

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And check, we reached my target. Let's see how it evolves from here.
We might get a new uptrend signal soon.

3 févr. 2016

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188.06 is the new mode.
The dip to the mode at 189 I mentioned happened.
We can long tomorrow, I'll confirm by then.

3 févr. 2016

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Correction, new mode is a bit higher. I'll go long tomorrow with confirmation.
We can look to short the top targets with a 1 ATR stop.

4 févr. 2016

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After today's close we'll have a new mode higher, and a price to enter buy stops for the long.

5 févr. 2016

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Potential path and targets:



If we get a retracement we could short it for sure. Or short at market with a wide stop.
Once the target's met, we should see a reaction to the upside. There's strong support below. If broken it can be really ugly.

9 févr. 2016

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With USDJPY close to the first support, a bounce tomorrow is expected. Asian action in futures is incredibly bearish for now.
Will update tomorrow after the market closes.

12 févr. 2016

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We might see a turn soon, expecting big upside.

12 févr. 2016

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And so we did, I'm long, but not long the market.

17 févr. 2016

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If we break the 194 Vix spike level, we might see further upside. The reaction to the lowest level implies this was it for the downside, at least for some time. (We discussed this with Tim West in his chatroom, he said it was a potential terminal triangle conclusion, and judging by the speed of the ascent it seems to be the case)

19 févr. 2016

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Judging by the lack of sufficient speed to confirm the terminal in time, and the fact that yesterday's bar turned down right below a key level, it would appear that we might see an excursion to the lows. We might even see a new low, but it's uncertain for now. I have closed my equity longs for the time being, and will wait for new buy signals that may come.

8 mars 2016

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24 mars 2016

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Uptrend should be done or close to it for now. We might get a new leg up before a steep retracement.
Monitor the 207-208 zone.