Spy

Oversold here ... on the 1-2hour.. Bounced of 384 support...

It's only a short now if we break below that.. Still risk off situation but we could see a bounce and retest 391.50 in the next couple of days... Weekly is a bearish engulfing... look at your weekly chart and tell me the last time a weekly bearish engulfing didn't lead to next week lower lows?

Vix pulled back after that gamma squeeze to 28...

IWM, NYSE, and DJI all look nasty from a structure perspective..

The only thing holding this up is XLK sector.. once 135 goes, shit will get real.. high chance we See 378-380 next week looking at the technicals IMO.. but at some point we will have a dead cat bounce

Upside targets or resistance
391.50
393
396.50



So to sum this up.. it's still risk off but there's a high chance of a technical bounce at this level so if you have Shorts date 3/13-3/15 becareful with the swing

I'm in all cash right now.. not chasing any longs. May wait till after CPI or if we break 384..

Commentaire:

I just did some homework...
So, before I begin, remember you'll have this app believe because you believe in technicals, yes? So don't hit me with the hypothetical macro or SVB situation.. I personally think there may be more fall out from SVB collapse.

Now on to the technicals..
XLV (Healthcare Sector) - Weekly chart is oversold on MFI, CCI amd weekly candle is outside its Bollinger bands . I think XLV is primed for a major rebound . XLV is the second biggest sector.

IWM - has sold the most and its daily Candlestick is below it's Bbands , with its hourly MFI and RSI oversold.. over 177 and IWM will rebound.

XLF - financial sector
Daily RSI and MFI are flashing oversold.
If you look at JPM and WFC you'll see they were already buying the dip.

XLE- energy closed on 82$ support.. if you place a horizontal pine on 82 you'll see what I mean... It may or may not hold, below 82 and we kick off a major double top


So the reason I mention the above is because they were the biggest draggers on the market last week. Logically if they we're to oversold bounce for a few days the spy could rally.


Now, looking at the Spy 2-3hour MFI.. Haven't seen it this over sold since OCTOBER when we gapped down to 348, and before that June lows.. What happened Next? 7-16$ rally . So a bounce back to 396.50 - 399 seems possible

Now this setup Conflicts with another technical indicator , Volume + Candle.
What I mean is, we finished the week with a bearish engulfing on higher volume . The last 4 times the Spy finished the week with a bearish engulfing we 100% seen lower lows the following week. So a drop to 378-380 seems possible ..

How can we see both 399 and 380 in 1 week?
If you look at the economic calender your answer is there..

Cpi, ppi, retail sales, etc all this week .. So strap and get ready for some volatility.

Commentaire:

Going to need some volume to break out over 391.50 -392 or we are headed straight back to 386

Commentaire:

393.50 is tough possible bear flag setting up here

Commentaire:

Bear flag it is..

Wait for a look Below 387.

Targets are
384
380
377


IWM and DJT look nasty.. Cyclicals and smallstocks

Commentaire:

Still trading under that whitetrendline resistance at 390.50

New range 393-384 (Yellow lines)

Starting to look like a repeat of late Dec early January where we range traded between 377-386

Commentaire:

I outline the H&S so you could see how the neckline aligns with our 393 resistance...

It'll be tough to break over 393, if we close above 393 we are headed for 401.50.

If we reject we could range trade back to 384

Tech is in full swing .. QQQ doesn't have much resistance over 302.. that means there's a high chance we are going to 401 , especially if oil,metals and banks stop selling

Commentaire:

Should pull back at 396.50- 397 and retest 393.50 before heading to 401.50

Commentaire:

Pullback to test 393.50 tomorrow

Commentaire:

Retest break out 386 - 387.50

Commentaire:

Flush

Commentaire:

Finished inside a range..
3 things I wanted to see happen to confirm a leg down today that didn't.

1. IWM held 170
2. QQQ held 303
3. Vix couldn't breakover and hold 26

XLF and XLE look terrible.. Chart is screaming more dump to come.

XLK got rejected off 144 and closed outside its bbands... Can't count this out with MSFT having that gap at 286 to close still .

I'm in cash waiting on a new week.. Range is still 380-402..

I think any situation with the banks over the weekend will influence Mondays move .. watch IWM 170 area, if that goes we are taking a major level down...

VIX really looks like it's flagging on the daily
But that 1hour CCI is overbought and 26 couldn't be broken.. 22 is support 26 is resistance

Commentaire:

What do you get when
Aapl
Nvda
AMD
Meta
Googl
Amzn

Are all showing bearish Shooting stars?

The only reason spy bounced off 380 before was because of the tech rally on a possible fed pause.

Tomorrow I think we test 388

Possible H&S forming on 1hour here.
Watch for the bounce at 388 , if there is no bounce then this is just a major flush and we head to 384 tomorrow

And by next week we break 380

Commentaire:

My end of March target is 367.

First target 380 after that 367 by April.

Commentaire:

Copy this trendline to your 3 hour chart ...

Last time I mentioned a possible H&S forming on the hourly.. this is still possible as long as we don't cross above 397..
Over 397 and we head back to 400..

Would only short this Below 394 .
Supporting trendline starts a 392.40 , Daily 200sma also in in that area .

So below 394, our target is 392.50.
Stay nimble, if it doesn't break through 392 cover your short, And go Long.

Below 392 is 389..
The real short begins under 388.
Look back at 3/15; Do you see the volume? The buyers stop losses would be triggered on any break below that area .

Tech also has been holding this up, 306 on qqq needs to give way.


IWM regain 170 support. So I wouldn't be bearish on banks and metals unless that support gives way..

Commentaire:

Volume wasn't isn't half what will be needed to breakover this intersection .

I know most of you have adhd lol, and won't have the patients but I doesn't think a long is a good idea under 402...

Not even considering moving averages, there's alot of resistance there at 400. QqQ looks really weak, there's no way spy breaks over 400 without QQQ blessing

Commentaire:

Possible flag forming here
Support 394
Resistance 397.