STZ | Reversal Setup – 35-Year Channel Support + Falling Wedge

Ticker: STZ (Constellation Brands Inc.)
📆 Timeframe: 1W (Weekly)
📉 Price: $166.74
📈 Pattern: Descending wedge + long-term parallel channel from 1989
📊 Pattern Breakout Probability: ~69% in favor of bullish reversal

🔍 Technical Setup:
STZ is currently testing the lower bound of a macro rising channel going back to 1989 — a level historically associated with major market bottoms. At the same time, price is compressing inside a descending wedge, a high-probability bullish reversal structure.

📊 According to historical chart pattern statistics, falling wedges break upward ~68% of the time, especially when accompanied by rising volume and multi-decade support.

🧠 Trade Thesis:
📥 Buy Zone: $160–$170
⛔ Stop-Loss: $150.79 (below wedge support, could be an increasing trailing stop)
📐 Probability of Upward Breakout: ~69%, based on classical pattern statistics

🎯 Upside Targets & ROIC (from $166.74):
Target Price Return
🎯 Target 1 $218 +31.2%
🎯 Target 2 $257 +54.2%
🎯 Target 3 $273 +63.8%

⚠️ Why This Setup Is Exceptional:
✅ 35-year rising channel support — rarely tested

✅ Descending wedge compression = bullish tension

✅ Volume spike and price rejection = signs of bottoming

✅ Statistically supported pattern → ~7 in 10 chance of breakout

💬 STZ combines deep technical structure with statistically supported probabilities.
This is the kind of trade setup where structure, price, and probabilities align.

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