TON → Failure to Break 200EMA! More Downward Pressure Coming?
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Toncoin has failed to break the 1HR 200EMA consistently for over a week which doesn't scream much confidence for the bulls. Are we about to see another dip?
How do we trade this? 🤔
The last 5 failures to break the 200EMA are a strong signal to short. Each candle sports a big wick on their top and collectively are forming a double top patten which usually includes a fall in price. If a strong bear candle closes and the RSI falls just below the Moving Average, it's reasonable to short a 1:2 Risk/Reward Ratio down to just before the Previous Support at $2.024.
💡 Trade Idea 💡
Short Entry: $2.1800
🟥 Stop Loss: $2.2375
✅ Take Profit: $2.0650
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2
🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑
1. Bear Trend, Bias to Short.
2. Failure to break 200EAM, Look for Short Entry.
3. RSI at 56.00 and on Moving Average, Supports Bear Bias.
4. Two More Failed Attempts to Break 200EMA, Short with Confirmation.
5. Bitcoin at Risk of Trend Change, Supports Short Bias.
⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk!
Like 👍 and comment if you found this analysis useful!
How do we trade this? 🤔
The last 5 failures to break the 200EMA are a strong signal to short. Each candle sports a big wick on their top and collectively are forming a double top patten which usually includes a fall in price. If a strong bear candle closes and the RSI falls just below the Moving Average, it's reasonable to short a 1:2 Risk/Reward Ratio down to just before the Previous Support at $2.024.
💡 Trade Idea 💡
Short Entry: $2.1800
🟥 Stop Loss: $2.2375
✅ Take Profit: $2.0650
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2
🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑
1. Bear Trend, Bias to Short.
2. Failure to break 200EAM, Look for Short Entry.
3. RSI at 56.00 and on Moving Average, Supports Bear Bias.
4. Two More Failed Attempts to Break 200EMA, Short with Confirmation.
5. Bitcoin at Risk of Trend Change, Supports Short Bias.
⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk!
Like 👍 and comment if you found this analysis useful!
Note
TON never gave us the required bear confirmation and instead, gave us a two-legged pullback confirming the previous double bottom.
As shown in this chart, we received a nice sell signal at the 200EMA, which is a sign to get ready to short. However, however the following two bear candles were weak; not large and not closing on their lows. This is the first sign that we're not going to complete our short setup.
The next few candles meandered back up to the 1HR 30EMA and had an exhaustive bear candle, a sign that this downward motion is over. The next leg was a higher low, forming a reverse head and shoulders, the final signal that this price action was going up. The last datapoint is the RSI level hit 33.00 on the bear exhaustion candle, a very nice relational signal that should have added to the idea that the downward pressure was over.
A fresh TON analysis will be coming soon!
-Joe Dean
Trader Engineering Course
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