The Secret Behind TSLA's 8% Jump on 11/23 - just getting started
I noticed the stars aligning on TSLA, and now much that has happened since Elon took over Twitter is starting to make sense.
1) Elon mentioned back in October it was likely TSLA would do a $5-10B buyback
2) Biden's inflation reduction act creates a 1% excise tax on all Stock Buybacks starting 1/1/23. At a 110B buyback, this represents a $100,000,000 unnecessary liability to the company - meaning Tesla is either going to do a buyback before end of year...or never. A 110B leaves the company in a very strong position w/ a Debt Ratio of .27. The benchmark for a strong company is .4 - meaning Tesla could easily buy back anywhere between 110B or as much as 13.5B of stock and stay in a strong position.
3) TSLA's super hyped and long anticipated Semi 1st delivery event is slated for 12/1. These events have typically sent TSLA shares soaring (even the cybertruck debacle)
4) The chart below shows abnormal relative volume by time period. I recognized a similar pattern when Elon was SELLING shares to finance Twitter earlier this month. Tesla's board isn't dumb and w/ Elon as CEO knew this would depress the price and create a buyback opportunity.
5) Tesla is presently flush with cash (21B) and has easily manageable debt (33B). A 110B buyback at $170-180/share would equate to 56M shares. Tesla's 3M average daily volume: 74.7M - volume today: 108.2 (45% ABOVE avg volume) - 33.5M excess shares. This likely indicates TSLA bought back around 25-28M shares.
6) TSLA is well in the green this year - yet the don't issue dividends. I'm not 100% certain on this point, but I believe a company purchasing it's own stock can offset profits and reduce it's tax liability. Tesla doesn't issue dividends, so there's no reason to hold the cash reserves to incur the 21% corporate tax rate. Add to this the fact that the stock got crushed the last 2 months - falling from $308 to $168 (45%), and every Tesla share holder is very eager to stop the bleeding. What to do...what to do???
7) Elon's tweets have been a hotbed for moving TSLA, DOGE, and TWTR shares in the past. Since the Twitter takeover, Elon has been mostly mum aside from some very vanilla posts about TSLA - nothing that would dramatically impact the price.
8) Short volume, while not excessive, will add some fuel to the fire as they cover positions.
Tesla will rebound in dramatic fashion the next few weeks as will the broader market. Corporations saw record profits in Q2 of this year, and if my assumptions on buybacks reducing a corporations tax liabilities are correct - the entire market will likely see a very merry santa rally. Even if a corporation is forced to pay tax on stock buy backs that is similar to corporate tax of 21%, delaying beyond 12/31/21 makes zero financial sense for companies in a strong financial position like Tesla.
My very bold prediction: Tesla finishes 2022 in dramatic fashion over 250/share. Closer to 300/share isn't out of the question.
1) Elon mentioned back in October it was likely TSLA would do a $5-10B buyback
2) Biden's inflation reduction act creates a 1% excise tax on all Stock Buybacks starting 1/1/23. At a 110B buyback, this represents a $100,000,000 unnecessary liability to the company - meaning Tesla is either going to do a buyback before end of year...or never. A 110B leaves the company in a very strong position w/ a Debt Ratio of .27. The benchmark for a strong company is .4 - meaning Tesla could easily buy back anywhere between 110B or as much as 13.5B of stock and stay in a strong position.
3) TSLA's super hyped and long anticipated Semi 1st delivery event is slated for 12/1. These events have typically sent TSLA shares soaring (even the cybertruck debacle)
4) The chart below shows abnormal relative volume by time period. I recognized a similar pattern when Elon was SELLING shares to finance Twitter earlier this month. Tesla's board isn't dumb and w/ Elon as CEO knew this would depress the price and create a buyback opportunity.
5) Tesla is presently flush with cash (21B) and has easily manageable debt (33B). A 110B buyback at $170-180/share would equate to 56M shares. Tesla's 3M average daily volume: 74.7M - volume today: 108.2 (45% ABOVE avg volume) - 33.5M excess shares. This likely indicates TSLA bought back around 25-28M shares.
6) TSLA is well in the green this year - yet the don't issue dividends. I'm not 100% certain on this point, but I believe a company purchasing it's own stock can offset profits and reduce it's tax liability. Tesla doesn't issue dividends, so there's no reason to hold the cash reserves to incur the 21% corporate tax rate. Add to this the fact that the stock got crushed the last 2 months - falling from $308 to $168 (45%), and every Tesla share holder is very eager to stop the bleeding. What to do...what to do???
7) Elon's tweets have been a hotbed for moving TSLA, DOGE, and TWTR shares in the past. Since the Twitter takeover, Elon has been mostly mum aside from some very vanilla posts about TSLA - nothing that would dramatically impact the price.
8) Short volume, while not excessive, will add some fuel to the fire as they cover positions.
Tesla will rebound in dramatic fashion the next few weeks as will the broader market. Corporations saw record profits in Q2 of this year, and if my assumptions on buybacks reducing a corporations tax liabilities are correct - the entire market will likely see a very merry santa rally. Even if a corporation is forced to pay tax on stock buy backs that is similar to corporate tax of 21%, delaying beyond 12/31/21 makes zero financial sense for companies in a strong financial position like Tesla.
My very bold prediction: Tesla finishes 2022 in dramatic fashion over 250/share. Closer to 300/share isn't out of the question.
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