This was a historic agreement with a decent proposed cut, pushing the brent up to more than 15% in 2 days.
I expect more positive news flow next week when Opec will discuss with Non-Opec members.
Given the fact that Russia has already agreed to a gradual cut, it's likely that other non-opec members will also agree to cut their production and that will push the brent close to $60.
Now on the down side:
1. Russia didn't specify any measurable target to cut their oil production. In short, we have a gradual cut on an agreement that will last for 6mths and with no easy way to measure it. Sure the agreement can be renewed but that another round of negotiation so NOT guaranteed.
2. this is the old game theory where the max pay-off for a player is not to go for the consensus. Indonesia went for the max pay-off by leaving Opec so that it can grab more market share and move from net importer to net exporter, more to follow eventually
3. US shale firms in Texas are now back in business now that they are locked in contracts with a decent strike and that will increase the supply
4. Will the demand increase in 2017? I doubt it
Bullish short term with target price between 60 and 58 next week
Bearish once that target price is hit
I expect more positive news flow next week when Opec will discuss with Non-Opec members.
Given the fact that Russia has already agreed to a gradual cut, it's likely that other non-opec members will also agree to cut their production and that will push the brent close to $60.
Now on the down side:
1. Russia didn't specify any measurable target to cut their oil production. In short, we have a gradual cut on an agreement that will last for 6mths and with no easy way to measure it. Sure the agreement can be renewed but that another round of negotiation so NOT guaranteed.
2. this is the old game theory where the max pay-off for a player is not to go for the consensus. Indonesia went for the max pay-off by leaving Opec so that it can grab more market share and move from net importer to net exporter, more to follow eventually
3. US shale firms in Texas are now back in business now that they are locked in contracts with a decent strike and that will increase the supply
4. Will the demand increase in 2017? I doubt it
Bullish short term with target price between 60 and 58 next week
Bearish once that target price is hit