Macro approach:
- USDCAD edged higher this week amid softer Canadian labor data, boosting BoC cut odds and pre‑CPI caution that kept the USD supported as traders eyed key US inflation prints.
- Canada shed 40.8k jobs in Jul while unemployment held at 6.9%, reinforcing expectations for a 17 Sep BoC cut and pressuring the loonie.
With Canada's calendar light, focus shifted to the US, where Jul CPI/PPI and Retail Sales are set to steer Fed cut probabilities that sit near 85–90% for Sep, anchoring USD tone into the data.
- In short, US inflation and activity data could drive USDCAD direction, while oil's resilience may cushion CAD. A softer US CPI/PPI may weigh on USD and support CAD, but it is limited (Oil trend and Sep rate cut), whereas sticky prints could extend USD firmness into the week.
Technical approach:
- USDCAD formed a Triple-Bottom pattern and broke the descending channel to make a swing high at around 1.3878. The price retraced and retested the support at around 1.3755 and bounced to close around EMA78. The price is captured within a tight trading range of 1.3755-1.3850, awaiting an apparent breakout to determine the trend.
- If USDCAD closes above both EMAs and the resistance at 1.3850, the price may retest May's resistance area at around 1.4000.
- On the contrary, closing below the support at 1.3755 and the ascending channel may prompt a correction to retest the key support at 1.3567.
PS: I also provide a quick view on DXY regarding US CPI data today via Wall Street Journal: wsj.com/finance/currencies/asian-currencies-consolidate-ahead-of-u-s-july-cpi-data-74ec2b6e
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
- USDCAD edged higher this week amid softer Canadian labor data, boosting BoC cut odds and pre‑CPI caution that kept the USD supported as traders eyed key US inflation prints.
- Canada shed 40.8k jobs in Jul while unemployment held at 6.9%, reinforcing expectations for a 17 Sep BoC cut and pressuring the loonie.
With Canada's calendar light, focus shifted to the US, where Jul CPI/PPI and Retail Sales are set to steer Fed cut probabilities that sit near 85–90% for Sep, anchoring USD tone into the data.
- In short, US inflation and activity data could drive USDCAD direction, while oil's resilience may cushion CAD. A softer US CPI/PPI may weigh on USD and support CAD, but it is limited (Oil trend and Sep rate cut), whereas sticky prints could extend USD firmness into the week.
Technical approach:
- USDCAD formed a Triple-Bottom pattern and broke the descending channel to make a swing high at around 1.3878. The price retraced and retested the support at around 1.3755 and bounced to close around EMA78. The price is captured within a tight trading range of 1.3755-1.3850, awaiting an apparent breakout to determine the trend.
- If USDCAD closes above both EMAs and the resistance at 1.3850, the price may retest May's resistance area at around 1.4000.
- On the contrary, closing below the support at 1.3755 and the ascending channel may prompt a correction to retest the key support at 1.3567.
PS: I also provide a quick view on DXY regarding US CPI data today via Wall Street Journal: wsj.com/finance/currencies/asian-currencies-consolidate-ahead-of-u-s-july-cpi-data-74ec2b6e
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et les publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou des recommandations en matière de finance, d'investissement, de trading ou d'autres types de conseils fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et les publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou des recommandations en matière de finance, d'investissement, de trading ou d'autres types de conseils fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.