U.S. job growth likely slowed in August after two straight months of robust gains, but the pace of increase should be more than sufficient for the Federal Reserve to announce a plan to start trimming its massive bond portfolio.
While the job gains would clear the path for the U.S. central bank to outline a plan to start shrinking its $4.2 trillion portfolio of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities at its Sept. 19-20 policy meeting, tepid wage growth could leave a December interest rate increase in doubt.
Average hourly earnings are forecast rising 0.2 percent after advancing 0.3 percent in June, likely keeping the year-on-year gain in wages at 2.5 percent for a fifth consecutive month
The wages component of the jobs report will be key.
If earnings are to have picked up along with employment, we will see a straightforward reaction with U.S. stocks and yields rising and the dollar being bought
While the job gains would clear the path for the U.S. central bank to outline a plan to start shrinking its $4.2 trillion portfolio of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities at its Sept. 19-20 policy meeting, tepid wage growth could leave a December interest rate increase in doubt.
Average hourly earnings are forecast rising 0.2 percent after advancing 0.3 percent in June, likely keeping the year-on-year gain in wages at 2.5 percent for a fifth consecutive month
The wages component of the jobs report will be key.
If earnings are to have picked up along with employment, we will see a straightforward reaction with U.S. stocks and yields rising and the dollar being bought
Trade fermée: ordre d’arrêt atteint
Prior was +209K (revised to 189K
Estimates ranged from +139K to +226K
Private payrolls 165K vs +172K expected
Unemployment rate 4.4% vs 4.3% expected
Participation rate vs 62.9% prior
Wages data:
Average hourly earnings +0.1% vs +0.2% m/m expected
Average hourly earnings 2.5% vs +2.6% y/y expected
Average weekly hours 34.4 vs 34.5 expected
confuse!!!.