USDJPY - Reconciliation with a foreseen correction on equities
The move on USDJPY looks impulsive and would be "confirmed" if 119.75 on close with target 124ish.
Also I see USD potentially appreciating against EUR to 1.07 and EURGBP falling further to 0.72.
But I see equities correcting from here and have difficulties seeing that happpening with USDJPY climbing further.
Solutions:
1 - I am wrong on equities - Hope/think not.
2 - equities fall while usdjpy increases - Why not.
3 - equities fall while usdjpy reaches back to 116 a last time but eurusd falls at the same time... and eurjpy properly collapses.
4 - Equities fall and usd fall at the same time
(3) is my best guess right now.
Conclusion: although the friday move looks very impulsive, i would not chase it higher. I would not short it either as i am short equities already.
Neutral but skeptical about the long.
Also I see USD potentially appreciating against EUR to 1.07 and EURGBP falling further to 0.72.
But I see equities correcting from here and have difficulties seeing that happpening with USDJPY climbing further.
Solutions:
1 - I am wrong on equities - Hope/think not.
2 - equities fall while usdjpy increases - Why not.
3 - equities fall while usdjpy reaches back to 116 a last time but eurusd falls at the same time... and eurjpy properly collapses.
4 - Equities fall and usd fall at the same time
(3) is my best guess right now.
Conclusion: although the friday move looks very impulsive, i would not chase it higher. I would not short it either as i am short equities already.
Neutral but skeptical about the long.
