PHP Historical Price & A Greater Probability of further Weakness

The worst performing value for the PHP was recorded on April 18-19, 2004 Asian Session. And marked a high @57.50/72 which later pulled back to close 55.75. And marked as the worst devaluation of the PHP against the USD. Which began drifting thereafter. The pivotal price recovery started @40.15 dated Jan 20, 2008 with a 2nd higher low 42.45 in Nov 11.08, 2010 and repeated in March 11, 2013 which started the full run to the USDPHP recovery as of today Oct 27, 2016 @48.55 to this writing.

When such chart and price patterns are defined there is a higher probability that a the consolidated period which broke out of its trend line resistance from its highest price level @57.50/72 can re-test another run towards the 52.38 rate level after breaching its average price of 47.25. The recent week's low @47.92 shows the resiliency of the USD strength and PHP weakness. As prices have to continued back above the 48.50 levels.

Which means Long on the USD and Short on the PHP as weakness in value prevails in the near-to medium term outlook

Commentaire:

Validated as breaking the trend line resistance.

Commentaire:

Currently after calling this market on the USDPHP, it is above 54.00 as pressured from the previously released inflationary data at 6.4%. We do not discount the probability for the PHP weakness to continue above their historical high once the exchange rate breaks through USD/PHP55.50 which may find some resistance before hand.