I will short VRT in the second half of February

I plan on initiating a short position few days before or after earnings (Feb 21):

- price is overextended (daily, weekly, monthly)
- long term resistance trend line broken to the upside with ease but not retested yet

- retail activity extremely high

- retail sentiment extremely bullish

- Put/Call ratio highly in favor of Calls
BUT in the past few days, as the price increased, more Put contracts were opened
meaning that some investors started building short positions while retail traders continue to buy massively.

I would love this to:
- continue to increase until earnings, in this case I will short before earnings announcement
- see an insider selling shares, which would increase my confidence in this potential short

If it corrects before earnings, I will short any pop that happens after the earnings announcement.

I keep an eye on:
- the 55 level
- retail activity and sentiment, I would like them to be as high as possible by the earnings date
- insiders activity
- options open interest

Commentaire:

I have started building my short position today.

Commentaire:

I just closed my short with a small profit (about 1.5%).
I don't like the price action going into earnings, I would have preferred to see more FOMO, more overextension.
The fact that the price declined significantly before earnings does not fit into my short plan.

I will review the price action tomorrow after earnings and also after NVDA earnings before potentially opening a new position.