OIL FORECAST

Last week oil price worked its way breaking 200MA and 50 FIB level and heading to the last line of defense 61.8 FIB level. As it was mentioned in the previous review (), Saudi Arabia with OPEC is vigorously working its agenda for a higher oil price within the range of 70$ per barrel.

Lats Week Fundamentals:
* Nationwide power outages are still happening in the deeply damaged economy of an oil producer country. Venezuela corrupt government has not been able to cope with the national electrical system disaster, where years of zero investments, due to corruption and lack of capable professionals, have brought the nation to the stone age.
The country exports have dipped to 650,000 bpd according to TankerTracker (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-oil-exports-exclusive/exclusive-venezuela-oil-exports-stable-in-march-despite-sanctions-blackouts-idUSKCN1RE24K?rpc=401&).
* US Labor Department showed employment growth, mitigating the fears about weakening global crude oil demand. Additionally, Washington and Beijing are progressing on a trade deal.
(https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil/oil-prices-edge-lower-on-economic-concerns-but-geopolitics-support-idUSKCN1RH043)
*Libya military actions and troops marching to Tripoli could disrupt oil supply to OPEC aiding the cartel's agreed cut in oil production.

Technical Analysis
50 FIB level and 200MA were broken last week. Driven by fundamental factor price action's kept forming Higher High and Higher Lows, closing last Friday with a strong bullish candle with no rejection.

Still, the market shows force to break 61.8 FIB level. After that break, a clear bearish divergence with MACD will be in place for a healthy reversal, to add more long positions and ride the uptrend to 70$.