I expect some potential heavy volatility as the week progresses and we get closer to the fed press conference and NFP. To start the week i expect a small choppy range and price may move up some in the 1804-1808 range before making its way lower to the lower 80s. There is mostly support in that area and we may see a breakdown retest. I expect home sales to come in good which paired with the prior miss on housing starts will only solidify the view that demand is out pacing supply in the housing market which in my view would lead us lower to the low 70s to mid 60s range. At that point it gets tricky, but I believe price may float up some at the least as we await the fed press conference. If we look at my prior idea the usd has at least some room to run but the 1780s will surely be a significant near term test of the bear in gold. I just want to add that for the first time since the pandemic began trader have gone net long on the usd, so that is also something to keep in mind this week. All the best and happy trading.
