XAU/USD breaks 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level
Morning outlook - XAU/USD breaks 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level
Due to release of another set of the US inflation and consumer spending data, which did not change the overall prospect about the upcoming interest rate hike, the buck managed to drag the bullion through the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1,278.96, thus confirming an existence of a new descending channel. Although this breakthrough happened a little bit earlier than expected, but it still perfectly fit into the general picture, in which the rate was expected to gradually move to the bottom, trying to reach the lower edge of a dominant ascending channel. Nevertheless, during this trading session the pair is likely to make a temporary rebound near the 1,273.14 level, which represents location of the 100-day SMA. If such scenario materializes, the junior channel might transform into a falling wedge.
Due to release of another set of the US inflation and consumer spending data, which did not change the overall prospect about the upcoming interest rate hike, the buck managed to drag the bullion through the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1,278.96, thus confirming an existence of a new descending channel. Although this breakthrough happened a little bit earlier than expected, but it still perfectly fit into the general picture, in which the rate was expected to gradually move to the bottom, trying to reach the lower edge of a dominant ascending channel. Nevertheless, during this trading session the pair is likely to make a temporary rebound near the 1,273.14 level, which represents location of the 100-day SMA. If such scenario materializes, the junior channel might transform into a falling wedge.
In accordance with expectations, for couple of hours the fall of the exchange rate was stopped by the 100-day SMA. However, a release of better than expected information on the US manufacturing activity ultimately led to appreciation of the buck against all major currencies including the gold.
From technical perspective, the pair is about to reach to weekly S1 at 1,266.63, which represents the only notable support level that separates the pair from the bottom edge of a dominant ascending channel.
Given that informational background remains in favour of the buck and there are scheduled no macroeconomic data releases today, the pair is expected to successfully bypass this barrier and continue to move to the south.
However, there is a need to take into account that the average market sentiment became 59% bullish.