SP500:
- Retraced to Kijun Sen, so reached the first bearish support resistance zone ard 1980-2000.
- haDelta is extreme again. After extreme low, it has reached extreme high. I think we can expect some consolidation here below/around Tenkan and Kijun, with probably some short term bearish bias again. I still don't believe in V-shaped recovery, as the index suffered serious damage on the weekly chart too (penetrating Kumo), so it doesn't have the same look at all like in October/2014! Back than weekly Kumo was a lot lower and provided good support.
I re-opened some shorts yesterday, but as ATR jumped, so volatility is very high, my same 1 Unit trade size means less futures contracts now, so less notional position. Make sure you always adjust your position size (up or down) as volatility changes.
EURUSD:
- As expected, it has retraced to Kijun Sen. Chikou Span retests past Kumo, keeps long open space ahead. So far no lower low today, SAR not hit, and Price is above Kumo.
- haDelta signals possible slowdown in short term bearish momentum and may also signal start of next bullish wave soon: for this haDelta/SMA3 has to make a firm cross, and move above zero line to confirm. Let's see how the candle body will look like at the end of the day.
OIL:
- The long waited correction not just happened, but happened as one of the biggest one day % move in WTI's history. Extreme short covering rally sent it up to Kijun Sen.
- I signalled this possibility here and more times in Twitter too. I hope you enjoyed this ride as much as I I did :-)
Today I took some profit and closed 2/3 of my counter long position in the early European trading, but placed a new buy limit order already at 41,25. Check 4H charts for short term supports and signals.
GOLD:
- As expected, retraced to Kijun Sen. Price is in the Kumo, so in terms of Ichimoku it is neutral.
- However Heikin Ashi starts to signal some possibly rising bullish bias again. Of course we have to see the close of recent candle, but so far it looks like bearish momentum loss: might be an inside body or doji candle later, with haDelta/SMA3. We'll see later today, but from Kijun Sen support, the risk-reward for long entry looks better.
- If you enter long, your stop should be placed Kijun Sen-buffer, or to the last reactive low ard 1105.
On the top side we have multiple relevant levels: 1140 (Tenkan and future Senkou B), 1152 (Kumo top/spot Senkou B), 1160 (previous high). It becomes really bullish if on next wave it breaks above Kumo. In that case tgt is 1200+ (weekly resistance)
I am building long position. Looking to buy more with stop buy orders above the upper key levels.
By the way, I was thinking what do we miss to see a final and ultimate equity selloff, or global risk off?
I found two things:
- Gold needs to break above 1200, which is the most important long term level now looking at weekly chart. That would signal increasing fear and loss of trust in fiat ccys, Central Banks and risk assets.
- NASDAQ100 is still strong compared to SP500. NAS100 index is still above its weekly Kumo, have not yet penetrated it. This means the beloved previous Tech and Biotech leaders (IMHO most of them useless and hyped companies) are still not too weak. If investors start to dump Apple, Facebook, Google, etc. and Biotech index components too, that will be the point where bear market starts to expand.
- Retraced to Kijun Sen, so reached the first bearish support resistance zone ard 1980-2000.
- haDelta is extreme again. After extreme low, it has reached extreme high. I think we can expect some consolidation here below/around Tenkan and Kijun, with probably some short term bearish bias again. I still don't believe in V-shaped recovery, as the index suffered serious damage on the weekly chart too (penetrating Kumo), so it doesn't have the same look at all like in October/2014! Back than weekly Kumo was a lot lower and provided good support.
I re-opened some shorts yesterday, but as ATR jumped, so volatility is very high, my same 1 Unit trade size means less futures contracts now, so less notional position. Make sure you always adjust your position size (up or down) as volatility changes.
EURUSD:
- As expected, it has retraced to Kijun Sen. Chikou Span retests past Kumo, keeps long open space ahead. So far no lower low today, SAR not hit, and Price is above Kumo.
- haDelta signals possible slowdown in short term bearish momentum and may also signal start of next bullish wave soon: for this haDelta/SMA3 has to make a firm cross, and move above zero line to confirm. Let's see how the candle body will look like at the end of the day.
OIL:
- The long waited correction not just happened, but happened as one of the biggest one day % move in WTI's history. Extreme short covering rally sent it up to Kijun Sen.
- I signalled this possibility here and more times in Twitter too. I hope you enjoyed this ride as much as I I did :-)
Today I took some profit and closed 2/3 of my counter long position in the early European trading, but placed a new buy limit order already at 41,25. Check 4H charts for short term supports and signals.
GOLD:
- As expected, retraced to Kijun Sen. Price is in the Kumo, so in terms of Ichimoku it is neutral.
- However Heikin Ashi starts to signal some possibly rising bullish bias again. Of course we have to see the close of recent candle, but so far it looks like bearish momentum loss: might be an inside body or doji candle later, with haDelta/SMA3. We'll see later today, but from Kijun Sen support, the risk-reward for long entry looks better.
- If you enter long, your stop should be placed Kijun Sen-buffer, or to the last reactive low ard 1105.
On the top side we have multiple relevant levels: 1140 (Tenkan and future Senkou B), 1152 (Kumo top/spot Senkou B), 1160 (previous high). It becomes really bullish if on next wave it breaks above Kumo. In that case tgt is 1200+ (weekly resistance)
I am building long position. Looking to buy more with stop buy orders above the upper key levels.
By the way, I was thinking what do we miss to see a final and ultimate equity selloff, or global risk off?
I found two things:
- Gold needs to break above 1200, which is the most important long term level now looking at weekly chart. That would signal increasing fear and loss of trust in fiat ccys, Central Banks and risk assets.
- NASDAQ100 is still strong compared to SP500. NAS100 index is still above its weekly Kumo, have not yet penetrated it. This means the beloved previous Tech and Biotech leaders (IMHO most of them useless and hyped companies) are still not too weak. If investors start to dump Apple, Facebook, Google, etc. and Biotech index components too, that will be the point where bear market starts to expand.
