Here we are tracking a very technical move as we clear the stops for the Quarter close. Short Gold traders are now exposed with the range taken out, expecting risk sentiment to start again today with NY. The lows were taken like a hot knife through butter, the offer is now expiring and stops can be put behind the fresh 1470 barrier.
Expect a huge bout of Equities weakness to persist, wheels can fall off here in risk markets... monitoring closely VIX, CHF, Treasuries, and DXY in particular to see if the move is clean. If the move cannot trade the stops here and move lower it is faulty, and if you are down here short you need to get out quickly (highly unlikely) as the macro move in play is so powerful. These moves do not happen every week, you need to hang in there and deal with sentiment as it comes.
CB's bringing rates to the floor, JPY is going to find a strong bid with the next price driver. We discussed this in the Telegram:
"Tracking closely for any further hints in JGB’s ahead of the important consumption tax increase in Japan tomorrow from 8% to 10%. History would tell us that when Japan increases its sales tax, JGB yields fall. Friday saw record selling from foreign JGB investors (remember 50% of foreign JGB sits on the front-end of the curve) so we can assume that the recent selling has been front-end focused."
The conditions are tough...here we have a live example of how the market becomes bid. See how this is rotten for bears, they cannot hold the stops. Smelling a large move to the upside over the coming hours. Smart money is refusing to load shorts here, the move is weak because it was run on purpose and large orders have been filled.
Good luck all those in Gold.
Expect a huge bout of Equities weakness to persist, wheels can fall off here in risk markets... monitoring closely VIX, CHF, Treasuries, and DXY in particular to see if the move is clean. If the move cannot trade the stops here and move lower it is faulty, and if you are down here short you need to get out quickly (highly unlikely) as the macro move in play is so powerful. These moves do not happen every week, you need to hang in there and deal with sentiment as it comes.
CB's bringing rates to the floor, JPY is going to find a strong bid with the next price driver. We discussed this in the Telegram:
"Tracking closely for any further hints in JGB’s ahead of the important consumption tax increase in Japan tomorrow from 8% to 10%. History would tell us that when Japan increases its sales tax, JGB yields fall. Friday saw record selling from foreign JGB investors (remember 50% of foreign JGB sits on the front-end of the curve) so we can assume that the recent selling has been front-end focused."
The conditions are tough...here we have a live example of how the market becomes bid. See how this is rotten for bears, they cannot hold the stops. Smelling a large move to the upside over the coming hours. Smart money is refusing to load shorts here, the move is weak because it was run on purpose and large orders have been filled.
Good luck all those in Gold.
Transaction en cours
Commentaire:
Damn... stops couldn't hold here
Trade fermée: ordre d’arrêt atteint:
1470 hit... this one is going to be painful as the low looks set
