ZCASH: Redemption in 2021?

22 nov. 2020

As the week of the first halving is coming to a close, ZEC is trying to break the 75 USD level. I'm personally not in the business of spotting H&S patterns or channels on the 4HR or 1HR chart, so let's zoom out a bit. Since the January '18 high, Zcash has been in a steady decline. The overall bear market combined with high inflation levels caused ZEC to see one of the biggest declines from ATH among midcap alts, from about 800$ to a low of 18$ in March this year. Since then it has recovered along with the overall market. Increased BTC dominance has further devastated the zecbtc pair to new lows.

My view is that it will take some time for the reduced emission to translate into higher prices (33% to 12.5% inflation post halving). Considering the production cost, price will have to gravitate towards 100$. If the overall market conditions remain favourable, I think ZEC might be set up for a supply shock where price can move toward the green channel or even significantly higher in 2021.

28 déc. 2020

Transaction en cours

This last weekly close is indicating strong support above the 50$ level.



Looking at ZECBTC, the bottomless pair seems like it may hav found a local bottom (for now). This may have been a capitulation moment sparked by the recent SEC related FUD, or just post-halving volatility. I would like to move into the new year a bit higher, but patience is the name of the game with this one.

24 janv. 2021

Transaction en cours

It's been 2 months since the halving and ZEC started the year with a rally, decisively breaking through the 75 level. We found resistance at 120$, which ZEC hasn't traded above since late 2018. Breaking through it (and then 170) would be the starting point for a move towards ATH. For now, the 75 level was tested and we are ranging between the two. I personally hope to see another test of support, but things can move fast here. A weekly close above 120 is where the fun starts.

13 févr. 2021

Transaction en cours

Almost there..



170 area may be strong overhead resistance. 115 may have to be tested before breaking it.

Linear chart for some perspective:



Volume has room to grow. If it does, price can move aggressively into the 200-400 zone.

2 mars 2021

Note

Very clean technical movements here, the 180 level got rejected as it is a major resistance level that was the base of the 2017-2018 bull cycle. We tested 110, the level that served as resistance for 2 year. If it holds this is the base from where we break 180. After that, the next major level is 400. In a bull continuation scenario, that's where ZEC is headed.

3 avr. 2021

Note

Another attempt at breaking this key level. Volume is also increasing on the way up. It's clear where ZEC wants to go, if the overall market is favourable we may break 180 soon.

11 avr. 2021

Note

Breakout followed as expected. Bumped into some resistance at 230, may need to retest 195 or 175.



Meanwhile ZECBTC wants to break the 0.004 level. Let's see.

12 mai 2021

Note

ZEC has been showing strength recently and we've reached the top of my initial target area. I am taking some profits at these levels but still maintaining the majority of my position, as I think this will likely move higher.

My thinking is we will hit some resistance as we move towards the 400 level or higher (400-500), eventually resulting in a larger multi-week correction. After that, a move towards 770 or even 1000 could be in the cards.

ZEC above 1000$ is not unrealistic at all, from a technical point of view. However, fundamentals, especially regulatory restrictions resulting in exchange delistings of privacy coins, could ruin the party alltogether.

From a longer term point of view, FUD around privacy coins could actually be a great opportunity for an eventual re-entry after this cycle.

23 oct. 2021

Note

That multi-week correction came, albeit earlier than I expected, right after the previous update. ZEC has recently shown strength and is now at a key level that acted as weekly support during the 2017-2018 bull market. If it manages to break and close above, I think we can break the high of this year. That is, if the overall market doesn't break before we get the chance.