The soybean market over the last four weeks has been volatile, largely driven by a combination of geopolitical tensions, U.S. harvest developments, and South American weather. The market has seen consolidation within a range where it seems to be carving out higher lows and may be on track for prices to rise. The 50-day and 200-day moving average are right in line with each other on this daily chart and the market saw selling pressure from these levels in the recent down move. Futures prices generally remain under pressure from large supply estimates but see spikes and drops based on daily news.
Most recently, prices have seen a sharp downturn, especially heading into the second week of October, with November soybean futures dropping significantly on fears of escalating U.S.-China trade tensions. The ongoing trade war has severely impacted U.S. soybean exports, as China (the world's largest buyer) has largely avoided new crop purchases. News and rhetoric regarding trade talks, including discussions of a potential meeting between the U.S. and Chinese leaders, have caused significant price swings.
The U.S. harvest is underway, and while some initial reports suggested yields slightly below the most recent USDA forecasts, the overall projected supply remains high, which is a bearish factor. However, logistical issues, such as critically low water levels on the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers, are raising concerns about the ability to move the massive crop, potentially firming the cash basis in some areas.
Favorable weather for planting in Brazil and recovery from past drought conditions in Argentina are contributing to the expectation of large future global supplies, which puts long-term pressure on prices. Along with that, a U.S. government shutdown led to a postponement of key reports, such as the USDA's monthly WASDE report, leaving traders with less official information and relying more on private estimates and harvest reports.
*CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
Most recently, prices have seen a sharp downturn, especially heading into the second week of October, with November soybean futures dropping significantly on fears of escalating U.S.-China trade tensions. The ongoing trade war has severely impacted U.S. soybean exports, as China (the world's largest buyer) has largely avoided new crop purchases. News and rhetoric regarding trade talks, including discussions of a potential meeting between the U.S. and Chinese leaders, have caused significant price swings.
The U.S. harvest is underway, and while some initial reports suggested yields slightly below the most recent USDA forecasts, the overall projected supply remains high, which is a bearish factor. However, logistical issues, such as critically low water levels on the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers, are raising concerns about the ability to move the massive crop, potentially firming the cash basis in some areas.
Favorable weather for planting in Brazil and recovery from past drought conditions in Argentina are contributing to the expectation of large future global supplies, which puts long-term pressure on prices. Along with that, a U.S. government shutdown led to a postponement of key reports, such as the USDA's monthly WASDE report, leaving traders with less official information and relying more on private estimates and harvest reports.
*CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
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Further details of CME Group's regulatory status and full disclaimer of liability in accordance with applicable law are available here: cmegroup.com/disclaimer.html
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et les publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou des recommandations en matière de finance, d'investissement, de trading ou d'autres types de conseils fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.