Soybean Wave Count Has Options, Seasonality is Bearish
Soybeans currently have two equally likely wave counts.
The preferred count above, the blue line, implies that soybeans are currently in primary wave C of a zigzag correction. All subwaves support this count, and it also agrees with soybeans seasonality, which is bearish until late September.
The alternate count above, the yellow line, implies that soybeans have already completed a WXY double zigzag correction and are currently in intermediate wave 3 up. All subwaves also support this count (I know this seems unlikely, but it is possible to count intermediate wave B above as both an impulse and a zigzag. It looks like a zigzag, but if you count it as an impulse, wave 4 doesn't overlap with wave 1) but this count contradicts soybeans seasonality.
I place more weight on the Elliott wave model than on seasonality. However, when two wave counts seem equally likely, we need a tie-breaker, and seasonality can be remarkably reliable in agricultural commodities.
The preferred count above, the blue line, implies that soybeans are currently in primary wave C of a zigzag correction. All subwaves support this count, and it also agrees with soybeans seasonality, which is bearish until late September.
The alternate count above, the yellow line, implies that soybeans have already completed a WXY double zigzag correction and are currently in intermediate wave 3 up. All subwaves also support this count (I know this seems unlikely, but it is possible to count intermediate wave B above as both an impulse and a zigzag. It looks like a zigzag, but if you count it as an impulse, wave 4 doesn't overlap with wave 1) but this count contradicts soybeans seasonality.
I place more weight on the Elliott wave model than on seasonality. However, when two wave counts seem equally likely, we need a tie-breaker, and seasonality can be remarkably reliable in agricultural commodities.