SPX – GEX 6800 Put Support Holds🔶 SPX – 6800 Put Support Holds, Pricing Skew Mean-Reversion 🔶
On the daily chart, SPX found clean support at the 6800 put level , tied to the Jan 23 expiration . That level absorbed yesterday’s downside pressure, and price has been rotating higher since the bounce. 🟢
🔶 Options Structure 🔶
From an options structure perspective, the range is now clearly defined:
6800 acts as the primary put support 🔴
6915 marks the next call resistance on the weekly expiration 🟢
One of the most important signals comes from the Options Oscillator . Yesterday, put pricing skew reached a historically extreme level , indicating significant put overpricing relative to calls. Since then, we’ve seen a sharp mean-reversion in skew, suggesting that downside hedging pressure is easing.
That said, caution is still warranted . SPX remains below the High Volatility Level (HVL) , a regime where price action tends to be faster and more reactive, with elevated volatility. 🔵
If 6800 continues to hold , the next key test is the HVL zone around 6895 . A reclaim above HVL would shift the regime toward more controlled price behavior and opens the path toward 6915 call resistance as the next upside reference. 🟢
🔶 Key Levels to Watch 🔶
6800 – put support / downside anchor 🔴
6895 (HVL) – regime pivot 🔵
6915 – next call resistance (weekly) 🟢
As long as price holds above 6800 , the structure favors continued upside rotation , but sustained strength likely requires a reclaim above HVL . Failure to hold 6800 would quickly reintroduce downside volatility .
Volatility
SPX – GEX Back to Positive🔶 SPX – HVL Reclaim & GEX Shift 🔶
SPX briefly traded below the High Volatility Level (HVL) yesterday, entering a 🔴 negative GEX regime , which increased downside sensitivity and intraday volatility. However, that breakdown failed to follow through.
Price has since reclaimed the HVL , and based on the 01/16 GEX profile , SPX is now back in 🟢 positive GEX territory , signaling a structural shift away from downside acceleration and back toward dealer-supported price behavior.
On the daily chart, this reclaim occurred directly off the rising trendline , which has defined the broader uptrend. The successful defense of this trend support suggests that the move below HVL was a temporary liquidity sweep rather than a regime change.
With HVL reclaimed and GEX flipping positive again, 🟢 upside flows regain control , and price becomes more responsive to call-side positioning rather than put hedging pressure.
🔶 Options Structure – Upside Reference 🔶
From an options structure perspective, the next major upside reference is the 7000 level , which represents:
a key call resistance zone
the dominant upside magnet in the current positive GEX environment
a natural extension target following the trendline bounce
🔶 Key Structure to Monitor 🔶
HVL – reclaimed, now acting as regime pivot 🟢
Rising trendline – trend integrity confirmed 🟢
Positive GEX (01/16) – supportive dealer positioning 🟢
7000 – primary upside target / call resistance 🟢
As long as SPX holds above HVL and the rising trendline , downside volatility should remain contained, and 🟢 rotation toward 7000 remains the higher-probability path. Failure to hold HVL would be the clearest signal that 🔴 negative GEX dynamics are reasserting.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 1/22/2026 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2026
- PR High: 25569.25
- PR Low: 25523.25
- NZ Spread: 103.0
Key scheduled economic events:
08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims
- GDP
10:00 | Core PCE Price Index (MoM|YoY)
12:00 | Crude Oil Inventories
Weekend gap filled, immediate response
Session Open Stats (As of 12:45 AM)
- Session Open ATR: 364.30
- Volume: 26K
- Open Int: 258K
- Trend Grade: Long
- From BA ATH: -3.3% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 26521
- Mid: 25264
- Short: 24008
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
XAUUSD — Regime Valid, NY Open, No Reversal Permission (Waiting)FUSIONMARKETS:XAUUSD
Context, not signals.
Gold is currently in a valid higher-timeframe regime, but despite NY being open, reversal conditions are NOT permitted at this time.
What the framework is saying
HTF Regime: ✅ Valid
London Session: ❌ Closed
NY Session: ✅ Open
Reversal Permission: ❌ No
Outcome: Waiting
This means:
Trend structure is still intact
No confirmed regime weakness
No stretched conditions aligned with a sweep/rejection model
In other words: there is no permission to fade this move yet.
Why no trade here
Reversal engines in RegimeWorks only activate when:
Trend continuation weakens
Price is not stretched
Session context supports liquidity-driven reversals
None of those conditions are fully met right now.
Key takeaway
Not trading is a decision.
If the regime has not broken, there is nothing to “anticipate.”
Patience here protects capital and keeps the system aligned with its rules.
RegimeWorks philosophy:
Entries are temporary opinions. Regime is permanent law.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 1/21/2026 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2026
- PR High: 25175.25
- PR Low: 25103.50
- NZ Spread: 160.5
Key scheduled economic events:
08:30 | U.S. President Trump Speaks
Session Open Stats (As of 12:55 AM)
- Session Open ATR: 349.33
- Volume: 39K
- Open Int: 267K
- Trend Grade: Long
- From BA ATH: -4.4% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 26521
- Mid: 25264
- Short: 24008
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 1/20/2026 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2026
- PR High: 25405.00
- PR Low: 25367.25
- NZ Spread: 84.25
No key scheduled economic events
High volume open following holiday weekend
- Weekend gap down ~1.0% remains open
Session Open Stats (As of 12:55 AM)
- Session Open ATR: 356.37
- Volume: 201K
- Open Int: 269K
- Trend Grade: Long
- From BA ATH: -3.8% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 26521
- Mid: 25264
- Short: 24008
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
Bausch Health Companies Inc. (BHC.TO) — Swing Trade Idea💰 BHC.TO — Swing Trade Idea
🏢 Bausch Health Companies Inc.
🏢 Company Snapshot
• Diversified specialty pharma focused on gastroenterology, aesthetics, and neurology
• Trade-relevant now due to stabilizing fundamentals + technical reset within a broader base after a multi-month range
📊 Fundamental Context (Trade-Relevant Only)
• Valuation: Depressed vs large-cap pharma peers; pricing reflects leverage risk but limited downside repricing at current levels
• Balance Sheet: High debt, but no near-term liquidity stress; refinancing risk pushed out
• Cash Flow: Stable, predictable cash generation supporting deleveraging narrative
• Dividend: None — neutral for swing context
Fundamental Read: Fundamentals are no longer deteriorating, removing downside pressure and allowing technicals to drive mean-reversion and trend continuation trades.
🪙 Industry & Sector Backdrop
• Short-Term (1–4 weeks): Healthcare showing defensive bid; rotation out of cyclicals supports stability
• Medium-Term (1–6 months): Neutral-to-slight underperformance vs TSX, but basing structure improving
• Macro Influence: Rates stabilizing → reduces pressure on leveraged balance sheets
Sector Bias: Neutral → Mildly Bullish
📐 Technical Structure (Primary Driver)
• Trend:
– Price holding above rising 50-SMA (~9.70)
– Still above 200-SMA (~8.70) → primary trend intact
• Momentum:
– RSI(2) reset into oversold territory and curling up
– RSI(14) mid-range → room to expand
• Pattern:
– Pullback within an emerging higher-low structure
– Prior breakout zone acting as support
• Volume:
– Recent selloff on sub-expansion volume → pullback, not distribution
Key Levels
• Support: 9.50 – 9.65 (50-SMA + prior range high)
• Resistance: 10.50 – 11.25 (recent swing highs / range top)
🎯 Trade Plan (Execution-Focused)
• Entry: 9.55 – 9.75
– Confluence of 50-SMA, prior resistance-turned-support, RSI(2) reset
• Stop: 9.15
– Clean loss of structure + below rising trend support
• Target: 11.20 – 11.30
– Range high / measured move from pullback depth
• Risk-to-Reward: ~2.6R
Alternate Scenario:
If price loses 9.50 on a closing basis, stand aside and reassess near 8.90 – 9.00 (range midpoint + 200-SMA proximity).
🧠 Swing Trader’s Bias
Price remains in a constructive higher-low structure above the 50-SMA, with momentum resetting rather than breaking down. Looking for a reaction entry at support to target the upper range for a >2R mean-reversion / trend-continuation swing. A decisive close below 9.15 invalidates the setup.
XAUUSD — The Easiest Trade Today Was Doing NothingFUSIONMARKETS:XAUUSD
Look at the panel — the decision was already made:
NY Behavior: CLOSED
Regime: INVALID
Outcome: No Trade
No indicators to interpret.
No lower-timeframe hunting.
Just one rule:
If the session is closed, the market has not invited you.
Most losses come from trading outside permission.
Today was not a “missed move” — it was a correct skip.
Discipline isn’t dramatic.
It’s boring, repeatable, and visible on the chart.
RegimeWorks Reading
London Behavior: closed
NY Behavior: closed
Permission layer: inactive
Outcome: No Trade
Edge = knowing when to do nothing.
— RegimeWorks
Follow for daily permission checks, not daily predictions.
Crypto Whale Builds $900M BTC, ETH, SOL Positions —GreenBayChartAt GreenBayChart, we’ve long emphasized that the most reliable edges in crypto come from tracking structured smart-money behavior rather than headline noise or retail sentiment. Today, one of the market’s most historically accurate large traders — frequently associated with key turning points including the 1011 crash cycle — has once again captured attention. On-chain forensics and derivatives flow data reveal this entity has aggressively rebuilt leveraged long exposure across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, with total notional value now surpassing $900 million. Unrealized mark-to-market profits sit near $40 million, while cumulative realized gains over the past several months reportedly approach $135 million.
This is not impulsive speculation. This is deliberate, high-conviction positioning executed during a period of price compression — exactly the kind of structural signal GreenBayChart has repeatedly highlighted as a precursor to meaningful trend legs.
Diversified High-Conviction Exposure: BTC, ETH, SOL — Institutional-Grade Allocation
GreenBayChart’s wallet clustering and perpetuals positioning analysis shows the book is intentionally balanced across risk profiles:
Bitcoin serves as the low-beta core, capturing macro liquidity flows, ETF inflows, and dominance-driven stability.
Ethereum targets medium-beta utility growth: Layer-2 scaling acceleration, staking/restaking yield expansion, RWA tokenization momentum, and renewed spot ETF interest.
Solana delivers high-beta convexity — leveraging network throughput, memecoin flywheel activity, and DeFi rotation potential.
This diversified structure is textbook institutional risk allocation: anchor + growth engine + volatility amplifier. It reduces single-asset reliance while maximizing upside capture across different market regimes. At GreenBayChart we view this as clear evidence of disciplined capital deployment rather than directional gambling.
Precision Timing & Unrealized Gains: Accumulating at Compression Zones
Current unrealized profits hover around $40 million, with historical realized gains nearing $135 million across the broader campaign. GreenBayChart on-chain reconstruction confirms the majority of entries were layered in during late-2025 / early-2026 consolidation — precisely when funding rates had cooled, open interest had stabilized, and retail conviction was low.
This aligns perfectly with the trader’s documented playbook: build during uncertainty, scale on structure confirmation, and hold through noise. Entering near visible support clusters dramatically improves the position’s risk/reward asymmetry — a pattern GreenBayChart has tracked across multiple cycles.
Ethereum Positioning Stands Out: Whale Accumulation Meets Converging Catalysts
GreenBayChart notes outsized emphasis on Ethereum within the $900M exposure. This coincides with several tailwinds we monitor daily:
L2 TVL surpassing $180B and driving increased base-layer settlement demand
Upcoming Fusaka/Glamsterdam upgrades promising significant latency and throughput improvements
Restaking protocols expanding sustainable yield surfaces
Spot ETH ETF flows resuming after January consolidation
Historically, visible whale accumulation in ETH during BTC dominance plateaus often precedes sharp ETH/BTC ratio inflections and capital rotation phases. When that rotation begins, beta compression tends to be violent and sustained — a setup GreenBayChart flags as high-probability.
Leveraged Positioning Without Overheating: Healthy Smart-Money Signal
Derivatives metrics analyzed by GreenBayChart show open interest expansion is measured, not parabolic. Funding rates remain range-bound (±0.10–0.20%), avoiding the extreme overcrowding that typically precedes violent mean-reversion events. This balanced environment favors trend continuation over blow-off tops or sharp reversals — precisely the conditions professional traders seek when deploying large size.
The lack of crowded longs combined with clear smart-capital accumulation is one of the strongest bullish confluences GreenBayChart identifies.
Implications of This $900M Whale Trade for Market Structure
Positions of this magnitude reshape micro-dynamics:
Liquidity providers adjust spreads and hedging behavior
Short sellers raise stops or reduce aggression as perceived downside risk grows
Momentum algorithms scan for breakout confirmation (local high breaks, funding flips, volume expansion)
GreenBayChart does not treat any single wallet as gospel. No $900M position guarantees an immediate vertical move. However, sustained, diversified accumulation by high-conviction actors during compression phases has repeatedly preceded extended directional trends rather than quick spikes followed by distribution.
Key levels and signals GreenBayChart is watching:
ETH/BTC ratio for early rotation confirmation
Perpetual funding rates and OI delta for conviction strength
On-chain exchange inflows (potential partial exits) vs. continued wallet accumulation
Bitcoin dominance — a decisive breakdown often unleashes alt-beta expansion
In summary: when capital of this caliber positions with patience and structure during uncertainty, the odds of a measured bullish resolution rise materially. The $900M crypto whale trade is live and active. Whether it quietly reinforces the floor or ignites the next leg, one thing remains consistent — conviction this disciplined rarely appears without purpose
What RegimeWorks Means – And Why I Often Don’t TradeMost traders start with entries.
I start with permission.
RegimeWorks is not a signal method – it is a decision filter built on three questions:
Is the market currently behaving in a defined regime?
Is the active session appropriate for participation?
Is today’s quality high enough to justify risk?
If any answer is “no” → the correct trade is to do nothing.
That is why many of my ideas show no-trade outcomes.
Not because the market is “bad,” but because discipline is part of edge.
Good trading is not about finding reasons to click buy or sell.
It is about filtering conditions where behavior and liquidity disagree.
If this page looks boring, that is intentional.
Professional process usually is.
What you will NOT find here
• No signals
• No hindsight entries
• No prediction contests
• No hype
What you WILL find
• Context before action
• Session awareness
• Risk-first thinking
• One behavior at a time
The indicator shown on my charts is a framework tool only – it defines when to be cautious before when to participate.
PLTR - GEX Compression Signals BreakoutPLTR has entered a tight volatility compression phase , both on price and in the GEX profile , which is now clearly squeezed between well-defined option levels. 🔵
🔶 Current Structure 🔶
Call resistance sits at 190
Put support is defined at 170
Price has been trading in a narrow range for over a week , confirming balance rather than trend 🔵
This type of GEX compression + price compression rarely persists for long, especially in a high-beta tech name like PLTR. Historically, these regimes resolve via sharp directional expansion , not slow grind.
From a regime perspective, PLTR is currently trading below the HVL , which keeps downside sensitivity elevated. A clean break below 170 would likely trigger 🔴 negative gamma dynamics , opening the door for accelerated downside.
🔶 Options Sentiment 🔶
Call pricing skew is elevated near 40% , signaling stronger call demand despite range-bound price 🟢
Implied volatility has been rising steadily over the past 5 sessions , confirming positioning ahead of a catalyst
Earnings are scheduled for 02/02 , adding fuel to an already compressed structure
🔶 Key Structure to Watch 🔶
170 – put support / downside trigger 🔴
190 – call resistance / upside breakout level 🟢
HVL – regime pivot 🔵
Compressed GEX profile – volatility expansion risk 🔵
With price, GEX, and volatility all compressing simultaneously, PLTR is setting up for a near-term breakout , with earnings acting as a potential catalyst. Direction will be determined by which side of the GEX range resolves first.
NeuPath Health — Swing Trade Idea (TSXV:NPTH)💰 NPTH — Swing Trade Idea (TSXV)
🏢 Company Snapshot
• NeuPath Health provides integrated chronic pain treatment services across Canada.
• Micro-cap healthcare showing improving price structure after a multi-month base, with recent momentum attracting swing interest.
📊 Fundamental Context (Trade-Relevant Only)
• Valuation: Trades at a depressed multiple vs small-cap healthcare peers, reflecting prior underperformance.
• Balance Sheet: Leverage remains manageable; no immediate solvency stress priced in.
• Cash Flow: Still developing, but stabilization narrative aligns with improving technicals.
• Dividend: None (neutral for a swing setup).
Fundamental Read: Fundamentals do not drive the trade but no longer actively contradict the improving technical structure.
🪙 Industry & Sector Backdrop
• Short-Term (1–4 weeks): Canadian healthcare micro-caps showing selective momentum and mean reversion plays.
• Medium-Term (1–6 months): Relative underperformance vs TSX creates room for catch-up rallies.
• Macro Influence: Defensive healthcare exposure provides resilience amid broader market rotation.
Sector Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish.
📐 Technical Structure (Primary Driver)
• Trend: Price above rising 50-EMA (~0.46) and well above 200-SMA (~0.32).
• Momentum: RSI(2) has reset toward neutral after prior expansion, consistent with a healthy pullback.
• Pattern: Higher highs and higher lows since November; consolidation just below prior swing high.
• Volume: Expansion on the December impulse, followed by lighter-volume consolidation = constructive.
Key Levels
• Support: 0.48 – 0.46
• Resistance: 0.54 – 0.62
🎯 Trade Plan (Execution-Focused)
• Entry: 0.48 – 0.50 (pullback into VWAP / short-term value area above 50-EMA)
• Stop: 0.45 (loss of trend support and failed pullback)
• Target: 0.62 (measured move from the base and volume-node resistance)
• Risk-to-Reward: ~2.5R
Alternate Scenario:
If price fails to hold 0.46, stand aside and reassess near 0.42–0.40 where prior acceptance formed.
🧠 Swing Trader’s Bias
Price remains in a controlled uptrend above the 50-EMA with momentum resetting constructively. Looking for continuation from the 0.48–0.50 zone to challenge the 0.60+ supply for a 2.5R swing. A decisive break below 0.45 invalidates the setup.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 1/16/2026 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2026
- PR High: 25750.75
- PR Low: 25704.25
- NZ Spread: 104.0
No key scheduled economic events
Session Open Stats (As of 12:55 AM)
- Session Open ATR: 336.46
- Volume: 21K
- Open Int: 272K
- Trend Grade: Long
- From BA ATH: -2.2% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 26521
- Mid: 25264
- Short: 24008
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
USDJPY — Regime Valid, Session Closed → No TradeThe higher-timeframe trend regime remains valid, but current participation conditions are not.
Despite structural continuation on the 4H, price is trading during a non-participatory session, resulting in compressed movement and low follow-through.
This is a good example of where:
Bias exists
Direction exists
Opportunity does not
No trade is intentional here.
My process requires both regime alignment and active session participation before considering any execution. When sessions are closed, patience is the position.
Waiting is not inactivity — it’s risk control.
Most losses don’t come from bad entries — they come from trading when nothing is required.
Silver – Volatility Continues After New Record HighThe main chart attached to this post highlights the impressive rally in Silver that has taken place since late November when this increasingly popular metal was trading around 53.50. Move forward to today and Silver just printed a new record high of 93.513, that’s a gain of 74.7% in just a short 7 weeks.
Now, this hasn’t been an isolated move, base and precious metals have been experiencing strong demand as part of an on-going shift towards key commodities on expectations of further Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts and hopes of increased demand from China as authorities seek to boost growth.
More specifically for Silver, the latest up move seems to have been driven by an escalation of a political challenge by the Trump administration to the independence of the Fed, with the Department of Justice convening a grand jury to consider criminally indicting Chairman Jerome Powell, alongside an increase in geo-political tensions in Iran, where violent protests have irrupted countrywide which have threatened the authority of the reigning Islamic regime and drawn the attention of President Trump.
However, trading in Silver remains extremely volatile, with prices slipping back below $90 again (88.95 – 0630 GMT), assisted by news that the US have currently decided against imposing tariffs on critical minerals, although they remain on the table for later in the year.
While a further period of consolidation or a correction to the downside could be considered healthy, whether it can happen from this point may depend on how these events impact positioning into the weekend and early next week. The technical backdrop could also be an important consideration.
Technical Update: New All-Time Highs Maintain Upside Momentum
It’s hard to overlook a market that continues to post new all‑time highs as Silver and Gold have done recently. In Silver’s case, the brief pullback from December 29th to the December 31st low again only proved to be a limited correction. Buying support emerged again, and this week the market pushed through the previous high at 83.941 (December 29th) on a closing basis.
Some traders may conclude from this latest price activity that Silver continues to display positive underlying themes, potentially paving the way for further strength. However, in the current on-going volatile environment staying alert to potential support and resistance levels remains prudent, both for identifying where the next resistance might slow or even reverse the price advance, and for judging whether any emerging weakness is another limited correction within the uptrend or the start of a deeper decline.
Possible Resistance Levels: .
It’s fair to say that during the latest advance, resistance levels have not been particularly effective, with each potential barrier breached as prices pushed higher. Even so, this behaviour provides useful clues about the sustainability of the move as successful breaks above resistance can signal scope for further upside toward the next key levels.
For Silver, Fibonacci extension calculations based on the late December correction suggest that the latest price strength could be approaching a potential resistance at 97.781, which is the 100% extension level. A closing break above 97.781 may be required to indicate scope for higher levels, with potential toward 103.102, which is the 138.2% level, possibly further if this level also gives way on a closing basis.
Possible Support Levels:
It’s often difficult to judge with certainty when upside conditions have become over‑extended, and this alone doesn’t guarantee a pullback. As a result, a closing break below support is typically needed to suggest a deeper corrective phase. For Silver, traders may now view 84.569, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, as the first key level.
A closing break below 84.569, while not signalling an end to the broader positive backdrop, may allow price weakness to emerge. A break lower could point toward a test of the next support at 81.867, which is the 50% Fibonacci retracement, potentially extending down to 79.165, which is the deeper 61.8% retracement level.
The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 1/15/2026 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2026
- PR High: 25615.25
- PR Low: 25563.50
- NZ Spread: 115.75
Key scheduled economic events:
08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims
- Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
08:45 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
Session Open Stats (As of 12:15 AM)
- Session Open ATR: 331.29
- Volume: 29K
- Open Int: 273K
- Trend Grade: Long
- From BA ATH: -2.9% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 26521
- Mid: 25264
- Short: 24008
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
Jack in the Box | JACK | Long at $17.00**This is a reentry after cashing out of the original trade with gains. Basic writeup and technical analysis still apply which was originally written here:
Jack in the Box NASDAQ:JACK reentered my "crash" simple moving average zone. While there is a high chance the price may ride the lines down even further, there is currently a double bottom. A company like NASDAQ:JACK will benefit from interest rate cuts due to its significant debt, but it is a very risky trade. There are better companies out there.
However, with an 18 million float and 27% short interest, this could get very interesting as rates are cut. It's a gamble that hinges highly on company turnaround ("Jack on Track" plan) and the possible sale of Del Taco. Thus, at $17.00, NASDAQ:JACK is in a personal buy zone.
Targets into 2028:
$22.00 (+29.4%)
$26.00 (+53.0%)
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 1/14/2026 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2026
- PR High: 25913.75
- PR Low: 25886.50
- NZ Spread: 60.75
Key scheduled economic events:
08:30 | Retail Sales (Core|MoM)
- PPI
10:00 | Existing Home Sales
10:30 | Crude Oil Inventories
Temp 25% AMP margin requirement increase for expected economic news volatility
Session Open Stats (As of 12:25 AM)
- Session Open ATR: 319.19
- Volume: 18K
- Open Int: 279K
- Trend Grade: Long
- From BA ATH: -1.9% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 26521
- Mid: 25264
- Short: 24008
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
BTCUSDT: Volatility Contraction Leads to Expansion - LVRB BreakoWe have broken out of a consolidation range (the "quiet" period), triggering a confirmed LONG signal.
On the BTCUSDT 2-hour chart, the LVRB (Low Volatility Range Breakout) indicator identified a volatility squeeze (Box) and has successfully broken above its resistance.
I view this current setup as a critical pivot point where the market transitions from Volatility Compression to Expansion.
⚡️ 1. The Logic: Why This Matters
Markets move in cycles based on a universal principle: "Periods of low volatility are often followed by periods of high volatility."
Box (Accumulation): The True Range (TR) narrows significantly as the market stores energy ("The Silence").
Breakout (Release): That stored energy is released rapidly. We have confirmed a release to the upside .
---
⚡️ 2. Technical Analysis & Track Record
Between Jan 10 and Jan 11, price action was compressed into a tight range of $90,200 - $91,000 (the LVRB Box). Today (Jan 12), we saw a clear breakout. A candle close outside the box has confirmed theLONG entry signal.
The indicator has been accurately tracking the recent short-term trend direction:
Jan 3 | LONG | ✅ $89,500 → $94,500 (Up) |
Jan 5 | LONG | ✅ $91,500 → $94,500 (Up) |
Jan 8 | SHORT | ✅ $91,000 → $90,000 (Down) |
Current | LONG | ⏳ Active / In Progress |
---
⚡️ 3. Trade Plan (The Setup)
Here is my actionable plan based on this breakout.
We follow the momentum of the breakout to capture trend continuation.
Entry: Around $91,700 (Current Price) or on a retest of the box upper limit.
Take Profit (TP):
Target 1 : $93,500 (Recent swing high)
Target 2: $94,500 (Jan 6th High / Key Resistance)
Stop Loss (SL): $90,000 (Below the Box Low)
This setup offers a ratio of approximately 1:1.6 (TP1) to 1:1.9 (TP2).
⚡️ 4. The Tool: What is LVRB?
The LVRB (Low Volatility Range Breakout) is a custom tool I developed, specifically optimized for the BTCUSDT 2H chart.
How it works: It analyzes ATR and candle body size to automatically draw boxes around periods where price action is "dead" (accumulating energy).
Signals: It detects confirmed breakouts (via Close or Wick) to generate clear LONG/SHORT alerts, helping traders avoid chop and catch the start of a move.
⚡️ Conclusion
Trading breakouts from low volatility is one of the most effective ways to catch the start of a new trend.
The current LONG signal suggests a move toward $93,500 - $94,500, provided we hold above the $90,000 invalidation level.
Disclaimer : This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves risk; please trade responsibly.
USDJPY — Regime Valid, Session Closed (No Trade)Bias exists ≠ permission to trade.
USDJPY remains in a valid 4H trend-continuation regime, but participation is intentionally blocked because the active trading session is closed.
This is a good example of why regime filters and session awareness matter:
The higher-timeframe trend is still intact
Directional bias is defined
But liquidity and execution conditions are not
No trade is taken here by design.
Waiting for the right market conditions is part of the strategy — not a missed opportunity.
No signals. No automation. No urgency.
Just structure, patience, and discipline.
Extended no-trade periods are intentional
Trading less is often trading better.
$NSC | Quant Reversion Setup | Short Put StrategyInstitutional-Grade Mean Reversion Setup on $NSC.
My proprietary scanner flagged Norfolk Southern ( NYSE:NSC ) today as a high-probability reversal candidate based on volatility metrics.
The Technical Confluence:
Volatility Extension: Price pierced the Lower Bollinger Band (2.0 StdDev), indicating an overextended move to the downside.
Momentum Reset: RSI is strictly oversold and hooking up, signaling stabilizing momentum.
Algo Confirmation: My custom quantitative model triggered a mechanical entry signal (Green Arrow), validating that internal volume metrics support a bounce.
Structural Support: We identified a volatility floor around the $278 - $280 level (see red line on chart).
The Strategy (Income): Instead of buying the dip aggressively, we utilize the high Implied Volatility to sell Puts at or below the structural support level. This generates theta (time decay) profit even if the stock consolidates.
Thesis: Theta Decay + Mean Reversion.
Disclaimer: Educational analysis only. Not financial advice.






















