US natural gas prices ease to one-week low on rising output, ample storage
- Gas storage levels about 5% above normal, easing supply concerns
- LNG export feedgas hits all-time high
- Colder weather and increased demand expected in coming weeks
By Scott DiSavino
U.S. natural gas futures eased about 1% to a one-week low on Monday on a small output increase in recent days and ample amounts of fuel in storage.
That small price decline came despite forecasts for colder weather and more demand over the next two weeks than previously expected, and near-record flows of gas to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants.
Front-month gas futures for November delivery 
NG1! on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 2.8 cents, or 0.9%, to $3.276 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), putting the contract on track for its lowest close since October 17 for a third day in a row.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center projected Hurricane Melissa would batter Jamaica, Cuba, the Bahamas and Bermuda as it moves northeast from the Caribbean Sea into the Atlantic Ocean over the next week. The system is not currently expected to hit the U.S. mainland during that time.
Even though storms can boost U.S. gas prices by cutting output along the U.S. Gulf Coast, they are more likely to reduce prices by shutting LNG export plants and knocking out power to homes and businesses. About 40% of the power generated in the U.S. comes from gas-fired plants.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 107.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, down from 107.5 bcfd in September and a record monthly high of 108.0 bcfd in August.
On a daily basis, however, output has held near a three-week high of around 108.0 bcfd over the past four days. That compares with a daily record high of 109.2 bcfd on July 28.
Record output earlier this year allowed energy companies to inject more gas into storage than usual. There is currently about 5% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year.
Meteorologists forecast temperatures across the country will remain mostly near normal through November 11.
With the weather turning seasonally colder, LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 108.7 bcfd this week to 109.4 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday.
The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has risen to 16.6 bcfd so far in October, up from 15.7 bcfd in September and a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April.
On a daily basis, LNG export feedgas hit an all-time high of 17.4 bcfd on Sunday, topping the prior record of 17.3 bcfd on Saturday, with flows to Venture Global LNG's VG.N 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines plant in Louisiana at a record 3.9 bcfd.
LNG plants can pull in more gas than they can turn into LNG because they use some of the fuel to power equipment.
Week ended Oct 24 Forecast | Week ended Oct 17 Actual | Year ago Oct 24 | Five-year average Oct 24 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +70 | +87 | +79 | +67 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,878 | 3,808 | 3,853 | 3,711 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +4.5% | +4.5% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub | 3.30 | 3.30 | 2.58 | 2.41 | 3.52 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) (TRNLTTFMc1) | 10.66 | 10.87 | 12.89 | 10.95 | 15.47 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) (JKMc1) | 11.21 | 11.27 | 13.35 | 11.89 | 15.23 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) HDDs | 214 | 193 | 134 | 212 | 211 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 20 | 28 | 49 | 23 | 23 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 234 | 221 | 183 | 235 | 234 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 107.0 | 108.0 | 108.0 | 102.8 | 98.1 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 7.5 | 7.4 | 7.1 | N/A | 7.4 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 114.5 | 115.4 | 115.1 | N/A | 105.5 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 | N/A | 2.2 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.7 | 6.2 | 6.5 | N/A | 6.1 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 16.9 | 17.2 | 17.2 | 13.1 | 11.3 |
U.S. Commercial | 6.8 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 7.3 | 6.9 |
U.S. Residential | 7.7 | 11.5 | 13.2 | 9.1 | 7.1 |
U.S. Power Plant | 31.5 | 31.9 | 29.3 | 34.0 | 31.7 |
U.S. Industrial | 22.8 | 23.4 | 23.7 | 22.6 | 22.4 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.8 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 76.2 | 83.1 | 83.6 | 80.4 | 76.3 |
Total U.S. Demand | 101.9 | 108.7 | 109.4 | N/A | 95.9 |
N/A = Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 94 | 96 | 76 | 74 | 83 |
Jan-Jul | 90 | 91 | 78 | 76 | 77 |
Oct-Sep | 90 | 91 | 80 | 77 | 76 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Oct 24 | Week ended Oct 17 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
Wind | 10 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
Solar | 5 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Hydro | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 42 | 40 | 42 | 41 | 38 |
Coal | 17 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
Nuclear | 19 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub (NG-W-HH-SNL) | 3.21 | 3.34 | 2.19 | 2.19 | 3.49 |
Transco Z6 New York (NG-CG-NY-SNL) | 2.92 | 2.99 | 1.64 | 1.98 | 3.29 |
PG&E Citygate (NG-CG-PGE-SNL) | 2.94 | 3.43 | 3.72 | 3.04 | 5.47 |
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) (NG-PCN-APP-SNL) | 2.78 | 2.82 | 1.53 | 1.68 | 2.77 |
Chicago Citygate (NG-CG-CH-SNL) | 3.08 | 3.12 | 2.01 | 2.00 | 3.41 |
Algonquin Citygate (NG-CG-BS-SNL) | 3.20 | 3.18 | 1.80 | 2.88 | 4.27 |
SoCal Citygate (NG-SCL-CGT-SNL) | 3.12 | 3.21 | 2.60 | 2.47 | 5.92 |
Waha Hub (NG-WAH-WTX-SNL) | 1.77 | 1.57 | 0.59 | 0.77 | 2.91 |
AECO (NG-ASH-ALB-SNL) | 1.10 | 1.37 | 0.77 | 0.96 | 2.28 |
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
New England (E-NEPLMHP-IDX) | 50.94 | 53.07 | 40.14 | 47.35 | 48.44 |
PJM West (E-PJWHRTP-IX) | 62.43 | 66.00 | 41.96 | 41.98 | 45.33 |
Mid C (W-MIDCP-IDX) | 52.68 | 39.39 | 55.48 | 63.89 | 61.73 |
Palo Verde (W-PVP-IDX) | 28.92 | 21.66 | 45.83 | 39.50 | 62.42 |
SP-15 (W-SP15-IDX) | 29.60 | 25.84 | 35.86 | 31.30 | 58.87 |
